The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes is up and Governor Lowe will be giving pressers this week.
Will he hint at further easing?
Check out the top market themes that might affect the Aussie’s trends!
Labor market data (Nov 19, 12:30 am GMT)
- Australia printed better-than-expected numbers, showing only a net job loss of 29.5K (vs 35K decline expected) while the unemployment rate “only” edged up to 6.9% (vs 7.0% expected)
- AUD still fell though, thanks to RBA Governor Lowe hinting of the central bank cutting rates, expanding its QE program, and buying longer-term bonds
- Markets see the economy losing a net of 35K jobs in October
- The unemployment rate may have jumped to 7.1% for the month
RBA’s events
- The RBA is printing its meeting minutes on Nov 17, 12:30 am GMT
- Recall that the central bank cut its rates and pledged to buy longer-term debt earlier this month
- Governor Philip Lowe will also conduct pressers on Nov 16, 8:40 am GMT and Nov 17, 10:00 pm GMT. Watch out for dovish statements
- Assistant Governor Christopher Kent will also speak at a symposium on Nov 16, 10:30 pm GMT
China’s data dump (Nov 16, 2:00 am GMT)
- Foreign direct investment shot up by 6.4% after a 5.2% growth in September
- Industrial production could have slowed down from 6.9% to 6.3%
- Annual retail sales is seen at 4.6% from a 3.3% reading in October
- Unemployment rate is expected to tick higher from 5.4% to 5.5%
Overall risk appetite
- Pandemic-related headlines (vaccine updates, number of cases in major economies, stimulus prospects) will continue to influence AUD’s intraweek trends
- Top-tier releases from other major economies (ex. U.S. retail sales, U.K. CPI, etc) can also affect the Aussie’s intraday trading
- Election, virus, and stimulus uncertainty in the U.S. can continue to weigh on the dollar and boost high-yielding bets like the Aussie throughout the week
Technical snapshot
- Stochastic is flagging AUD/CHF and AUD/CAD’s “overbought” conditions
- AUD/NZD may be “oversold” on the daily time frame
- The Aussie may soon be overbought against the yen, dollar, and the euro
- SMAs show the Aussie’s short and long-term trends against the dollar, franc, euro, and Loonie
- AUD/NZD is on short and long-term bearish trends on the daily
- AUD/JPY is seeing short-term bearish pressure
- AUD was most volatile against the safe havens and the euro in the last seven days
Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for Nov. 9 – 13!
