Scots are still evenly split on independence, and a lengthy constitutional stalemate seems likely
Opinion polls for most of the past three years have shown Scotland to be evenly divided between supporters of union and independence. The Scottish parliament election result confirms this again. While the Scottish National party narrowly failed to gain an overall majority, independence supporters (the SNP and the Greens) have 72 of the 129 seats. Scottish electors cast two votes. The first is for a constituency MSP, elected by first-past-the-post as in Westminster elections. The second is for a regional party list, with seats distributed proportionally to ensure that the overall balance in the parliament is close to the regional list vote. Pro-independence parties won 49% of the constituency vote and 50.1% of the vote in the regional lists.
The polarisation of Scottish politics around the constitutional issue is exacerbated by Brexit. While unionists and nationalists backed remain by substantial majorities in 2016, since then there has been a move of remainers towards independence, while a smaller number of leavers have moved in the opposite direction. This polarisation has benefited the SNP and the Conservatives, while Labour has been squeezed. The middle ground, on which the largest section of Scottish opinion was previously camped – more devolution but short of independence – has shrunk.
