Analysis: Military advantage is overwhelming but full invasion and occupation are different matter

A full invasion of Ukraine, with the aim of pacifying the capital, Kyiv, would result in Vladimir Putin starting a war on a scale not seen since Iraq in 2003 – prompting western experts to question whether a lasting Russian victory could be achieved.

Estimates suggest about 100,000 Russian troops are massing near Ukraine’s borders. Yet, experts following the crisis closely say that for an invasion of the whole country that number would need to nearly double again, and would almost certainly involve forces passing through Belarus.

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