MANCHESTER, N.H. — What counts as a good outcome for President Joe Biden in New Hampshire’s unsanctioned Democratic primary Tuesday, where his name will not be on the ballot?
No one really knows, since the situation is unprecedented and the primary technically won’t count toward the nomination. But Biden supporters and detractors alike have been trying to set expectations in both directions.
Biden’s main competition in the Tuesday primary, Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn., has little hope of winning. And he knows it.
Phillips told NBC News: “If we’re in the ’20s, that would be extraordinary.”
But Phillips said Biden should be disappointed with anything less than the 81% or 84% won by former Democratic presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton when they ran for re-election in 2012 and 1996, respectively.
“If his numbers are below that,” Phillips told reporters Sunday, “I think it’s just more evidence of the fact that Democrats are deluded and we need a real competition, not a coronation.”
Biden’s supporters, who have been waging a write-in campaign on the president’s behalf, are trying to lower the bar by saying they just want Biden to get more votes than any other candidate, regardless of the margin.
“Write-ins are traditionally pretty difficult to do,” said Rep. Annie Kuster, D-N.H., before pointing to Alaska Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski, the most famous successful write-in candidate in recent history.
Murkowski won re-election in 2010 with only 39% of the vote after losing the GOP primary to a Tea Party challenger, leading her to mount a write-in campaign for the November general election ballot.
Neither are particularly apt benchmarks. Obama and Clinton had their names on the ballot, were able to spend money, and faced no credible opponents. Murkowski, meanwhile, was running in a general election, not a primary, and faced a Democratic and Republican nominee, so the vote share was split three ways.
There’s no real precedent for Tuesday’s unusual Democratic primary, so an adequate performance for Biden is likely somewhere between Murkowski’s 39% and Obama’s 81% — and Democrats privately say Biden better be above 50% — but ultimately, it may all come down to how the outcome is spun.
Biden’s name is not on the ballot due to a dispute between the state and the Democratic National Committee, which wanted South Carolina to have the first presidential primary. New Hampshire officials scheduled their primary first anyway, prompting the DNC to declare their primary “meaningless” and strip the state of its delegates to the national convention.
Under party rules, candidates are prohibited from campaigning, spending money, or even putting their name on the ballot in states that are not in compliance with the DNC. So, the president — officially, at least — is not competing in a primary that is essentially a beauty contest.
Add to the complicated equation that independent voters in the state can opt for which primary they participate — and while few are making the overt appeal, there are signs that some are opting for the Republican primary in a bid to try to boost former U.N. Nikki Haley as a protest vote against former President Donald Trump. That could also peel possible Biden voters away from the Democratic primary.
New Hampshire Democrats, however, worried about the perception that would be created if a rival like Phillips nominally won the New Hampshire primary, organized a campaign to encourage Democrats to write in Biden’s name.
Polls show Biden is far and away the favorite candidate of New Hampshire Democrats, but how many will actually turn out for an immaterial primary and figure out how to write in his name?
The danger for Biden is an embarrassing showing that sparks a new round of Democratic anxiety about his political strength against likely Republican nominee Donald Trump.
In 1968, antiwar candidate Eugene McCarthy stunned the political world by winning 42% of the New Hampshire Democratic primary vote against then-President Lyndon Johnson, who received 48%. Johnson, as was the convention at the time, was not campaigning for the nomination and did not put his name on the ballot in New Hampshire, nor was there a robust write-in operation to support him.
The strong support for McCarthy helped convince then-Sen. Robert F. Kennedy to enter the race and, facing two strong opponents, Johnson decided to bow out and not seek re-election.
Phillips is nowhere near as strong as McCarthy, and there’s no Kennedy-esque figure waiting in the wings. Plus, modern ballot rules and nominating processes would make it virtually impossible for another candidate to enter the race at this point. Biden remains on track for the nomination regardless of what happens in New Hampshire.
But he can probably avert some Democratic handwringing with a commanding win in New Hampshire — whatever that means.
Source: | This article originally belongs to Nbcnews.com
