It’s gonna be another jampacked trading week!
We’ve got the RBA and BOE decisions lined up, along with jobs figures from New Zealand, Canada, and the U.S.
Before all that, ICYMI, I’ve written a quick recap of the market themes that pushed currency pairs around last week. Check it!
And now for the closely-watched economic indicators on the calendar this week:
RBA interest rate statement
Starting off the brand-new trading month is the Australian central bank’s monetary policy decision on August 1, 4:30 am GMT, which might feature yet another 0.25% interest rate hike.
It’s worth noting, however, that the latest batch of CPI and retail sales figures from the Land Down Under turned out weaker than expected. This means that there’s also a good chance of the RBA standing pat for yet another month.
Either that or central bank officials might go for a “dovish hike” in signaling that this would be the last of their tightening moves in a while, possibly resulting to a selloff for the Australian currency.
BOE monetary policy decision
On Thursday, August 3, 11:00 am GMT, it will be the BOE‘s turn to announce their monetary policy statement. Another 0.25% interest rate hike is expected as well, given how inflationary pressures remain elevated in the U.K. economy.
The MPC meeting minutes are also due then, and this transcript might show another 7-2 split when it comes to hiking and keeping rates on hold. Soon after, BOE head honcho Bailey will give a testimony at 11:30 pm GMT and probably shed more light on the central bank’s policy bias.
Employment data
We’ve also got a slew of labor market figures lined up this week, with no less than the highly-anticipated NFP due on Friday!
Before that, though, New Zealand will print its quarterly employment data on Aug. 1, 10:45 pm GMT and possibly show a slightly slower pace in hiring growth.
Analysts are expecting to see a 0.6% quarter-over-quarter increase in employment versus the earlier 0.8% uptick, likely bringing the jobless rate up from 3.4% to 3.5% for the period.
Next up, we’ve got Canada‘s employment change figure due Aug. 4, 12:30 pm GMT, that might also print a slower increase in hiring of 15.5K for July versus the previous 59.9K jump. This should also bring the unemployment rate up a notch from 5.4% to 5.5% for the month.
The U.S. NFP report is also due on Aug. 4, 12:30 pm GMT and might show a slightly slower increase of 200K in employment compared to the earlier 209K rise, which would be enough to keep the jobless rate steady at 3.6%.
Traders are likely to pay close attention to the average hourly earnings figure as well, and this is expected to dip from 0.4% to 0.3% month-over-month, suggesting subdued wage growth.
Throughout the week, leading U.S. jobs indicators like the ISM manufacturing PMI, JOLTS job openings (Aug. 1, 2:00 pm GMT), ADP non-farm employment change (Aug. 2, 12:15 pm GMT), and ISM services PMI (Aug. 3, 2:00 pm GMT) might also impact NFP expectations and dollar price action.
