It’s shaping up to be another busy week in the forex market, as a handful of CPI reports and the U.S. NFP are all on deck.
Are we in for more data surprises?
Before that, ICYMI, I’ve written a quick recap of the market themes that pushed currency pairs around last week. Check it!
And now for the closely-watched potential market movers this week:
Major Economic Events:
Inflation reports – First up, we’ve got Germany’s preliminary CPI (Aug. 30) lined up early in the week, setting the tone for the eurozone’s flash CPI readings (Aug. 31, 9:00 am GMT) due the next day.
Analysts are expecting to see a slowdown from 0.9% to 0.2% for Germany’s inflation reading in August while the region’s flash headline CPI could tick higher from 8.9% to 9.0%. The core version of the report probably climbed from 4.0% to 4.1% in August.
Next up is Switzerland’s CPI (Sept. 1, 6:30 am GMT) that’s slated to show an improvement from a flat reading to a 0.2% uptick for August.
U.S. non-farm payrolls (Sept. 2, 12:30 pm GMT) – It’s NFP week! This means that dollar traders will be keeping close tabs on leading jobs indicators in the next few days and likely positioning ahead of the top-tier event.
Number crunchers estimate a 295K increase in hiring for August, slower than the earlier 528K increase. The jobless rate likely held steady at 3.5% while average hourly earnings probably dipped from 0.5% to 0.4%.
The JOLTS job openings report (Aug. 30, 2:00 pm GMT) due early in the week is expected to show slightly fewer positions for the previous month, dipping from 10.70M to 10.43M in July.
However, the ADP non-farm employment change (Aug. 31, 12:15 pm GMT) is projected to show a faster pace of hiring at 310K versus the earlier 128K figure. The ISM manufacturing PMI (Sept. 1, 2:00 pm GMT) might also have some clues for the official jobs report, as the reading is expected to dip from 52.8 to 52.1.
Forex Setup of the Week: AUD/USD
AUD/USD 4-hour Forex Chart
This week’s U.S. releases could spur big moves for AUD/USD, which has already completed a head and shoulders pattern on its 4-hour chart.
After gapping down over the weekend, the pair is testing the neckline support around .6875 and probably gearing up for a breakdown.
If that happens, price could tumble by the same height as the chart pattern or roughly 250 pips. And based on the Stochastic indicator, selling pressure is still very much in play!
Moving averages are suggesting otherwise, though, as the 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA. Then again, the gap between the indicators is narrowing to hint at a possible bearish crossover soon.
Expectations of another upside surprise in the U.S. jobs report might be enough to keep the dollar supported throughout the week, along with more risk-off flows in the markets.
The Caixin PMI readings from China might also be worth keeping tabs on, as another round of downbeat figures might mean more downside for the Australian currency.
