USD Weekly Forecast – Watch for Stimulus, Election, and Vaccine Headlines

We won’t see the retail sales report until the end of the week, so stimulus and election updates will likely dictate the dollar’s trends until then.

Planning on trading the dollar?

Here’s a list of potential catalysts that you should watch out for:

Closely watched economic releases

Annual inflation rate (Oct 13, 12:30 pm GMT) could speed up from 1.3% to 1.4% while the core inflation rate is expected to maintain its 1.7% annual rate
IBD/TIPP economic optimism (Oct 13, 2:00 pm GMT) to improve from 45.0 to 47.0
Producer prices (Oct 14, 12:30 pm GMT) seen growing by 0.3% after 0.2% downtick
Initial jobless claims (Oct 15, 12:30 pm GMT) to stay above the 800K for another week this week
NY manufacturing index (Oct 15, 12:30 pm GMT) seen dropping from 17.0 to 5.0 in October
Headline retail sales (Oct 16, 12:30 pm GMT) expected to slow down from 0.6% to 0.5%
Core retail sales (Oct 16, 12:30 pm GMT) could also dip from 0.7% to 0.4% in September

So far, markets are pricing in economic recoveries regardless of who wins the Presidential elections. Stay glued to the tube in case any of Trump or Biden’s remarks tip the scale in favor of either candidate
Updates on the stimulus negotiations will continue to influence the demand for the safe-haven dollar
Vaccine developments will also spur risk-taking if we see convincing prospects that could come out within the year
Q3 2020 earnings reports will start to trickle in this week, which could set the tone for Uncle Sam’s non-V-shaped recovery curve
Brexit and EU Summit headlines can also affect the dollar’s safe-haven trades