The U.S. economy likely exceeded its pre-pandemic peak in the second quarter as reopenings and government aid powered a growth surge that is expected to gradually slow in coming months, with Covid-19 variants and materials and labor disruptions clouding the outlook.
Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal estimate that gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services made in the U.S., grew at an 8.4% annual rate in the April-to-June period, compared with 6.4% in the prior quarter. That would mark the second-fastest pace since 1983, exceeded only by last summer’s rapid rebound from spring pandemic-related lockdowns. The Commerce Department will release its estimate of second-quarter GDP on Thursday morning.
Such growth would also propel GDP beyond pre-pandemic levels, a milestone that underscores the speed of the recovery that began last summer. Widespread business reopenings, vaccinations and a big infusion of government pandemic aid this spring helped propel rapid gains in consumer spending, the economy’s main driver.
“The economy has come roaring back faster than people expected,” said Jay Bryson, chief economist at Wells Fargo Corporate and Investment Bank.
Economists expect growth to remain strong, fueled by job gains, pent-up savings and continued fiscal support. Still, many say growth likely peaked in the second quarter and will cool as the initial boost from reopenings and fiscal stimulus fades.
