The playbook involves besieging cities, targeting civilians and starvation – we can’t abandon Ukraine to this terrible fate

Russia’s bombardment of the city of Kharkiv marked the start of a new phase in its campaign against Ukraine – and one that appeared timed to reinforce Moscow’s demands at the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia taking place at the same moment in Belarus.

The failure to achieve the swift victory in Ukraine that Vladimir Putin seems to have been expecting will mean the country finds itself facing Russia’s capacity to win wars not through adroit use of modern equipment and motivated, professional troops, but through bludgeoning its opponents into submission at a distance.

Keir Giles works with the Russia and Eurasia programme of Chatham House. He is the author of Moscow Rules: What Drives Russia to Confront the West

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