The Russian invasion – and resistance to it – are prompting reassessment in Beijing and Washington as well as in Taipei
Five thousand miles away from Ukraine, Russia’s invasion is bringing long-term questions into close and urgent focus. Concerns about Taiwan’s future have been mounting for years; in January, Beijing’s ambassador to the US said the issue could bring China and America into military conflict. China’s Communist party has regarded the self-ruled democracy as a renegade province since Chiang Kai-shek’s defeated forces fled there at the end of the civil war in 1949; Taiwan has never declared independence for fear of the reaction, but says it is already a sovereign state. China’s leader, Xi Jinping, appears to see unification as part of a personal mission of national rejuvenation.
The sight of a small democracy fighting off a major military power (or, from the Sino-Russian perspective, of the west exploiting others to undermine their legitimate interests) is sharpening everyone’s thinking. Mr Xi vowed to realise unification through peaceful means in an important speech last October. Though China is Taiwan’s largest economic partner, the island’s 24 million people have never wanted a “one country, two systems” deal, and events in Hong Kong have shown this to be a non-starter. Building up a clear military advantage – forcing Taipei and Washington to eventually bow to the inevitable, without a clash – would still serve Beijing best.
