Russia hopes for disagreement and distraction. To counter it, the west must maintain unity
The US president’s need to state on Monday that there is “total unanimity” over how to deal with the Ukraine crisis, like the video call with European leaders which preceded it, was itself evidence of ongoing differences among western allies. There is no dispute about the threat: more than 100,000 Russian troops are now massed near Ukraine’s borders. The US has put 8,500 troops on standby to deploy to Europe to reinforce allies there, while Nato has reinforced its eastern borders with warships and fighter jets. A senior US official briefed on Tuesday that in the event of an invasion, sanctions will “start at the top of the escalation ladder and stay there”.
In addition to the clear deterrent message, talks continue: Dmitry Kozak, the Kremlin’s deputy chief of staff, will meet French, German and Ukrainian officials in Paris on Wednesday, in the “Normandy format”. Set against that, Russia paid little price for the annexation of Crimea and fomenting the separatist uprising in the Donbas region in 2014. There is a credible case that Russia is set on a major military offensive – not merely pursuing coercive diplomacy – and that it is in Moscow’s interests to act before Kyiv receives further arms shipments. Above all, there is at present no visible off-ramp for Vladimir Putin. The very thing he says Russia must counter – Nato’s presence in eastern Europe – is growing because of his own actions. He might take an exit; it’s harder to see him beating a retreat.
