Neither Brexit nor Scottish independence offer the clean break that many hope for
The supreme court has been asked to decide whether a Scottish independence referendum can take place legally next October. No one should be surprised. One of the court’s responsibilities is to decide whether a bill in a devolved legislature falls outside its legislative competence. Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP first minister, has been looking for a legal way to hold a non-binding vote on Scotland’s 315-year-old union with the UK. She is hoping judges give her the authority to hold one. The court might say a “consultative” referendum – Indyref2 – is legal. But since unanimously declaring Boris Johnson’s “prorogation” of parliament unlawful, the court seems wary of constitutional confrontations.
Ms Sturgeon has had to gamble because the prime minister is opposed to another independence referendum, arguing that the 2014 vote was a “once in a generation” event. If the bench were to endorse another vote, then Lord Reed, the court president and an experienced Edinburgh judge, might become – perhaps to his dismay – a folk hero to Scottish nationalists. If judges decline to do so, Ms Sturgeon says she will fight the next UK general election on the issue of independence. This is clearly about politics as much as principles.
