Boris Johnson has been forced to discover and explain what he stands for. Keir Starmer cannot, and voters are unimpressed
One can read too much into the Conservative party’s astounding victory at the byelection in Hartlepool, a deprived port town seat in north-east England. But it is rare that a government wins such contests, especially when it has been in power for 11 years and when the seat had been the opposition’s for decades. Now the town with the highest unemployment rate in the country has a Tory MP. This makes for a significant moment. The result represents the first fruits of Boris Johnson’s political strategy, which rests on consolidating the 2016 leave vote and using the state to direct cash and jobs to the parts of “rust belt” England that voted overwhelmingly for Brexit.
Labour might argue that “Super Thursday” was about much more than a single constituency. Elsewhere, devolved and local governments were being chosen. Yet in Scotland, Labour is being steamrolled by the nationalists. The party is clinging on in Wales. But to win power it needs to be competitive in England. At the time of writing, English local government elections seem to point to a revival in voting for the Greens and Liberal Democrats, eating into Labour’s support. This spells real trouble for Sir Keir Starmer, who could be caught in a pincer movement, losing votes on the left and the right. There are about 20 or so “safe” Labour seats, including those of Ed Miliband and Yvette Cooper, where the combined 2019 Brexit and Tory party vote would easily overtake the sitting MP.
