Analysis: a full-scale attack seems improbable – but the troop buildup is enough to have Nato warn of sanctions

It is the second time this year that Russia has amassed forces near its borders with Ukraine, so why has the estimated 90,000 troop buildup left western governments and independent analysts more concerned?

The stark warning by the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, on Wednesday that Russia has made plans for a “large-scale” attack is backed up by open source analysis – and western intelligence assessments. “There is enough substance to this,” one insider added.

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