Missile strike appears to land near Ukrainian president and Greek prime minister in Odesa; Russian officer says prospect of new conflict increasing

It has gone 10am in Kyiv and 11am in Moscow. This is our latest Guardian blog covering all the latest developments over the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

A deadly Russian missile strike on the Ukrainian port city of Odesa appeared to land near president Volodymyr Zelenskiy and visiting Greek prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who described the moment of the bombardment as “intense”.

A senior Russian military officer has warned that the conflict in Ukraine could escalate into a full-scale war in Europe and said the probability of Moscow’s forces becoming involved in a new conflict is increasing “significantly”, reported the state RIA news agency on Thursday.

The Ukrainian military will stabilise the battlefield situation shortly and aims to form units for counter-offensive actions later this year, according to Lt Gen Oleksandr Pavliuk, commander of ground forces. He said work was under way to withdraw military units and restore their combat potential. Zelenskiy, has previously said Russia will try to mount a new offensive this spring or summer, but Kyiv has a battlefield plan of its own.

Ukrainian military spokesperson Dmytro Lykhoviy told national television on Wednesday that Russian forces were unable to gain new ground near Avdiivka. The Russians were instead focusing on an area to the south, near the village of Novomykhailivka. Maksym Zhorin, a Ukrainian commander in the area, also said Russian forces were having difficulty making headway. Their latest target was the village of Orlivka. “They are constantly attempting to advance and make progress wherever possible. Despite significant losses, they persist in launching assaults, both day and night.”

Sweden on Thursday is to become the 32nd member of Nato – a development entirely due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On a visit to Washington, Sweden’s prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, and foreign minister, Tobias Billstrom, are due to hand over final Nato accession documents to US representatives in the coming days. It is Sweden’s last step in a two-year process to join the military alliance.

Britain’s foreign minister, David Cameron, will discuss boosting support for Ukraine in talks with his German counterpart, Annalena Baerbock, in Berlin on Thursday. There may be awkward moments after Russian media published an intercepted online call between senior German military officials that included details about Britain’s operations in Ukraine.

High oil prices, sanctions evasion and state investment are providing Russia with enough resources to fight on in Ukraine at the current intensity for at least two more years, Lithuanian intelligence agencies have said. In a report, they add that Russian intelligence is driving efforts to evade sanctions on its defence industry. Russia is openly supplied with weapons and ammunition by only Iran and North Korea, but China has become its largest supplier of microchips, and the yuan now the main currency for Russia’s international transactions, the intelligence agencies say.

Britain is prepared to loan Ukraine all frozen Russian central bank assets in the UK on the basis that Russia will be forced to pay reparations to Ukraine at the end of the war, the UK foreign secretary, David Cameron, has said. He said the assets would be used as surety for the payment of the reparations.

Ukraine stepped up its attacks behind Russian lines with the apparent car bomb killing of a Russian election official in the Russian-occupied city of Berdiansk; and two drones struck the Mikhailovsky GOK iron ore refinery in Russia’s Kursk region, where an industrial fuel tank exploded. Ukrainian military intelligence was responsible for the iron plant attack, a source told Reuters.

Germany is participating in a Czech Republic initiative to buy ammunition for Ukraine with a three-digit million euro contribution, a spokesperson for the German government said on Wednesday.

A reporter for the independent Russian news outlet RusNews has been sentenced to seven years in prison for articles he wrote about alleged Russian war crimes in Ukraine, his publication said. Roman Ivanov was convicted of publishing “fake news” about the Russian army under wartime censorship laws.

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