Return to Almost Normal May Be Closer Than You Think

By some metrics, things have never been worse: U.S. hospitalizations are at a record high, and public-health experts continue to warn that things will get worse before they get better. With more than 19 million confirmed cases in the U.S., achieving herd immunity is a ways off. After all, that figure accounts for just 6% of the U.S. population. And with daily new cases still reaching well into the hundreds of thousands, it seems unrealistic to hope for Covid-19 to vanish in the new year. Worse, public polling has suggested that some adults won’t take a vaccine if offered.

However, the outlook for the year ahead is much brighter than those grim figures would suggest. Eradicating Covid-19 shouldn’t be necessary to begin a gradual return to schools, restaurants, concert halls and arenas.

While the challenge of vaccinating a large portion of the country is significant, it might not be as daunting as it first seems. There are roughly 333 million people in the U.S., but not everyone will need a vaccine right away. For starters, about 19 million people have a confirmed case. The true number of cases is likely much higher: Many patients with confirmed cases do not show symptoms, and some people who experience symptoms consistent with Covid-19 choose not to seek medical attention. Children make up a large share of the U.S. population, and there is little evidence that schools are hot spots for spreading the virus. That suggests vaccinating children shouldn’t be a prerequisite for returning to normal. So far, the shots available in the U.S. are only authorized for patients 16 and older.

About two million people in the U.S. have begun the vaccination process, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. While it would take several years to vaccinate even half the adult population at that rate, the pace should ramp up in the months ahead, as vaccine production from Pfizer and Moderna increases. Further reinforcements are likely on the way: Johnson & Johnson is expected to present data for its vaccine candidate early next month, and could be authorized for use by regulators in February if shown to be safe and effective. Other vaccines, from companies such as AstraZeneca and Novavax, could arrive shortly after that.

It will probably take most of 2021 to roll out the vaccine to a critical mass of adults, but giving priority to elderly and at-risk patients should help speed up a return to normal. About 54 million people in the U.S. are age 65 and older, according to the Census Bureau. If the vaccine reaches nursing homes and hospital workers quickly, a scenario where hospitalization and death rates plunge seems realistic, even if the virus is still spreading. Additionally, therapeutics such as antibody cocktails for at-risk patients and at-home Covid testing should be more widely available in the months ahead.

In that scenario, the risks of reopening would be far smaller, especially when weighed against the devastating economic and social impact of hobbled restaurants and closed schools. A return to full, unrestricted capacity in public spaces might not be realistic in the near future. But investors and the general public have reason to hope that markedly better days could arrive by the spring.

Write to Charley Grant at [email protected]