Analysis: Russian president is toying with matches but has not yet lit the fuse, hence the west’s caution

Vladimir Putin’s angry and rambling hour-long potted history of Ukraine’s failings on Monday night, culminating in a commitment to recognise the self-proclaimed republics in Donetsk and Luhansk, left western diplomats scratching their heads and wondering whether they had been made redundant.

The Russian president not only said he would recognise Russian-controlled territory in Ukraine, rendering eight years of negotiations over their future pointless, but he also signalled that Russia could not tolerate an independent Ukraine on its borders. Nato was hardly mentioned. His target at one point seemed to be the Bolsheviks, for relinquishing land to the nationalists.

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