A split-vote Conservative victory is seen as ‘a serious threat’ as Labour and Lib Dems battle for Nadine Dorries’s former seat

• Read more: Labour and Tories neck and neck in byelection race, says poll

On a sunny morning in the village of Barton-le-Clay, Emma Holland-Lindsay, the Liberal Democrat candidate in next month’s Mid Bedfordshire byelection, is arguing that her party is best placed to overturn the huge Tory majority in the seat. “I think we’re the frontrunners to beat the Conservatives,” she insists.

Timothy Fox, listening politely on the doorstep with his wife, Christine, gives a wry smile before replying: “Funny, Labour was here yesterday and said exactly the same thing.”

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