DES MOINES, Iowa — The Iowa caucuses on Monday night will provide the first test of how firm former President Donald Trump’s front-runner status is and whether any of his challengers can distinguish themselves as a viable alternative for the Republican presidential nomination.
The caucuses, which kick off the 2024 election cycle, open at 7 p.m. CT.
The final NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll, released Saturday, found Trump with a dominant, nearly 30-point lead that would more than double the 13-point GOP caucus record set by Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas in 1996. More suspenseful is what’s become a closely watched battle for second place between former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Follow live results from the 2024 Iowa caucuses.
“I need each and every one of you to get out — everybody get out, just get out and vote,” Trump said Sunday at a rally in Indianola. “You’ve got to bring your friend. … Bring them all out, because we have to set the stage for November. We have to get it done quickly.”
In last week’s poll, 48% of likely caucus-goers picked Trump as their first choice, 20% chose Haley and 16% preferred DeSantis. Running in the single digits were biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and Texas pastor Ryan Binkley.
Turnout has been the major unknown in the hours leading up to caucus time. Heavy snow last week and bone-chilling subzero temperatures over the weekend made an icy mess of Iowa’s roads, and Monday’s high was, at best, forecast to be -2 degrees F. The brutal weather could keep would-be caucusgoers at home and recalibrate best-case scenarios for the top three candidates.
Trump maintained high expectations Monday.
“I don’t know about the total number of votes because, you know, it is a little cold out there, but not really, and remember, everybody is indoors,” Trump said during an interview with Jeff Stein on News/Talk 1540, an eastern Iowa radio station. “So you’re not standing outside. So I think it’s going to be very close to record-setting, maybe even record-setting.”
A distant second-place finish by Haley or DeSantis would not completely reshape the race, but both are looking to leave the caucuses with even the slightest suggestion of momentum as the race shifts to next week’s New Hampshire primary. Haley has been polling much closer to Trump there, so eclipsing DeSantis in Iowa could allow her to argue that she is now the best hope for Republicans who want to prevent Trump from winning the nomination.
Such a scenario would represent a potential rock-bottom scenario for DeSantis, who began his White House push last year with the highest of ceilings and an aligned super PAC flush with more than $150 million in cash. But DeSantis has failed to perform to those lofty expectations, and he and his allies have spent much of the weeks leading up to the caucuses lowering them.
Where DeSantis once confidently predicted he would win Iowa, he now insists that he is in it for “the long haul” and that he will continue his campaign even if he doesn’t do well here. But finishing third would almost certainly put pressure on DeSantis to end his campaign.
“If ifs and buts were candy and nuts,” DeSantis told reporters Sunday in Dubuque when asked about the possibility of a third-place finish, “every day would be Christmas.”
Trump’s comfortable polling lead reflects the loyalty he still commands among GOP voters, despite being under four criminal indictments and holding far fewer Iowa events than his rivals have. Although Trump canceled three of four Iowa rallies planned for over the weekend, blaming brutal winter weather, he made quicker, unannounced stops, picking up food at Casey’s, a gas station known for its pizza, and delivering pies to firefighters in Waukee.
Beyond his occasional visits and constant media presence, Trump augmented his campaign with a turnout operation much more sophisticated than the slapdash version he deployed en route to a second-place finish here in 2016.
Using reams of data, his campaign put a special emphasis on finding Trump fans who haven’t caucused in the past and turning them out to vote, according to a senior campaign official. The campaign’s approach to identifying and turning out voters was strikingly similar to that of other modern campaigns, including those of some of his rivals and their outside allies — a proficiency that Trump wasn’t known for in his previous White House bids. And Trump himself used his speeches and teleconferences with supporters to share information about how to caucus and where to find more information.
Precinct captains — more than one for each of the state’s 1,600-plus precincts — were each charged with getting 10 new voters to caucus, the official said. When Trump campaigned in Iowa on Sunday, he wore a gold-lettered “Trump Caucus Captain” hat, a nod to his phalanx of commissioned officers on the ground.
In Saturday’s poll, 82% of Trump’s backers said their minds were made up and 49% described themselves as extremely enthusiastic to caucus for him. By contrast, more than one-third of DeSantis and Haley supporters said they could be persuaded to caucus for someone else Monday, and only 9% of Haley’s said they were extremely enthusiastic about her.
At his rally Sunday, Trump emphasized loyalty. He noted how Haley was challenging him after serving as his ambassador to the United Nations. He mocked DeSantis for begging for an endorsement in his 2018 bid for governor. He chastised Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, whose rise he also took credit for, for backing DeSantis. And he put a spotlight on his ability to bring vanquished rivals to heel, inviting North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, whose campaign for the GOP nomination never took off, to join him on stage and offer an endorsement.
“There’s something,” Trump mused at one point, “about the lack of loyalty in politics.”
Trump’s vice-like grip on the party has faced a surprisingly bold challenge from Ramaswamy, who initially positioned himself as a next-generation Trump — someone less threatening and more deferential to the former president. Trump’s advisers appreciated Ramaswamy’s slashing attacks on Haley at the early debates. But in recent weeks Ramaswamy’s kindness and fealty gave way to a strenuous new pitch that Trump’s legal woes had rendered him damaged goods.
As the race in Iowa entered its closing days, Trump’s frustration with Ramaswamy became obvious. Aides began trashing him on the record, and Trump unloaded on him Saturday night.
“Very sly,” Trump posted on Truth Social, “but a vote for Vivek is a vote for the ‘other side’ — don’t get duped by this. Vote for ‘TRUMP,’ don’t waste your vote! Vivek is not MAGA.”
But Trump largely avoided harsh criticism from his rivals. The indictments against Trump, including charges stemming from his behavior leading up to the riot by his supporters at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, only seemed to embolden him. Most of his rivals, with the exception of Hutchinson and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who dropped out of the race last week, rushed to Trump’s defense by dismissing the investigations into him as political.
Trump’s poll numbers began rising at a time when his legal issues mounted and when DeSantis was trying to establish himself as a strong alternative. But until recently, DeSantis resisted campaigning on Trump’s troubles. And many of the other Republican candidates at the first debate last summer, DeSantis included, raised their hands when asked if they would support Trump as their party’s nominee — even if he had been convicted of a crime.
Christie, a one-time Trump ally who ran as a Trump scold, polled relatively well in New Hampshire but was surpassed by Haley. Former Vice President Mike Pence, whose refusal to block certification of President Joe Biden’s victory in 2020 enraged Trump and his supporters who stormed the Capitol, never gained traction and dropped out in October.
DeSantis and Haley both hit Trump harder down the stretch toward Iowa. But they didn’t aggressively advertise against him and their attacks often centered on more prosaic issues, such as his refusal to defend his record and answer questions on the debate stage.
Trump often fell back on his poll numbers when asked why he wouldn’t debate. Occasionally, he made it clear that he knew his legal situation had only solidified his status in the party.
“Every time they file an indictment, we go way up in the polls,” Trump told his audience last August at an Alabama GOP dinner. “We need one more indictment to close out this election. One more indictment, and this election is closed out. Nobody has even a chance.”
Source: | This article originally belongs to Nbcnews.com
