The Russian anti-war movement is disjointed at the moment, but it could yet make an impact
Over the last fortnight, Russians have risked fines, prison terms of up to 15 years, physical abuse and more to express the belief that their country’s invasion of Ukraine is not in their name. At time of writing, 13,789 protesters have been detained since 24 February. An observer scrolling Twitter or watching the detainee count ratchet up might think that the anti-war movement could threaten Vladimir Putin’s aggression in Ukraine. But the reality on the ground looks different: the anti-war movement is small, weak and faces serious obstacles.
While the number of detentions is striking, it should not be confused with high turnout, because the detention rate is likely much higher than in normal conditions. Photos suggest that in many cities, the number of people at demonstrations is a few dozen or few hundred at most, with turnouts in Moscow and St Petersburg probably in the thousands.
Sasha de Vogel is a post-doctoral fellow at the Jordan Center for the Advanced Study of Russia, New York University
