The historic pledge to limit global warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F) could be abandoned during talks in Egypt, according to insiders to the negotiations.
First drafts of the pact to emerge from the United Nations Cop 27 meeting in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt are expected to be issued tonight.
But the promise that the Earth will not be allowed to warm by more than 1.5°C (2.7°F) could be dropped, with China pushing for the wording to be dropped.
The historic pledge to limit global warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F) could be abandoned during talks in Egypt, according to insiders to the negotiations
The Cop – short for Conference of the Parties – is an annual attempt to thrash out a global agreement to curb climate change, and is attended by some 45,000 delegates from 200 countries.
China, the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter by volume, is urging behind the scenes that countries should aim for 2°C (3.6°F) as it would require less drastic restrictions on its industry.
The 1.5c limit emerged at the Paris Climate talks in 2015, when it was agreed that countries should limit warming ‘by well below 2°C (3.6°F), preferably to 1.5°C (2.7°F)’.
US climate envoy John Kerry has made thinly veiled digs that China wants to scrap the limit.
On Friday, he laid the blame on countries ‘whose 2030 goals are not yet aligned with the Paris temperature goal,’ which has been interpreted as a dig at China.
Former President of Ireland Mary Robinson told the Irish Times: ‘I have been worried that there seems to some kind of attempt to say maybe 1.5°C (2.7°F) is not achievable any more. That is not acceptable.’
Many scientists say that 1.5°C (2.7°F) is probably out of reach as the countries of the world have emitted too much greenhouse gas to make this feasible, with the United Nations Environment Programme predicting the world could be on course for warming nearer to 2.8°C (5°F).
Alden Meyer, a long-time observer of UN climate meetings with the environmental think tank E3G, said if the G20 countries meeting in Balil reaffirm their commitment to the 1.5°C (2.7°F) goal, led by Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping that will strengthen the goal.
But if it is not reasserted, that would make it more likely the pledge is dropped.
‘What the two presidents decide in Bali will play directly into the endgame here in Sharm El-Sheikh,’ Mr Meyer said.
At the Glasgow climate talks last year, Alok Sharma, the Cop president said the talks had kept the chance of limiting global heating to 1.5°C (2.7°F), saying the goal was still alive, but ‘its pulse is weak.’
‘Can I just remind all of us friends, that at Cop26 we did resolve collectively to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C (2.7°F),’ he said.
The Cop – short for Conference of the Parties – is an annual attempt to thrash out a global agreement to curb climate change, and is attended by some 45,000 delegates from 200 countries
He added: ‘We’ve got to stick to that commitment. We cannot allow any backsliding.
‘But we are already at 1.1°C (1.98°F) degrees global warming and I know I don’t have to remind all of you the impact of that around the world.
‘Even at 1.5°C (2.7°F) we are still going to have devastating outcomes for many millions. As our friend from Bangladesh reminded us 1.5°C (2.7°F) needs to be a red line. And this cannot be the COP where we lose 1.5°C (2.7°F).
‘So, we’ve got to fight for this and every fraction of a degree absolutely makes a difference.’
He added that the difference between 1.5°C (2.7°F) and higher levels of warming is the difference ‘between a tolerable existence and an impossible future.’
And that 2°C (3.6°F) would be a ‘death sentence’ for many nations around the world.
A reality-check report released at COP27 last week showed CO2 emissions – which must decline nearly 50 per cent by 2030 to keep the 1.5°C (2.7°F) target in play – from coal, gas and oil are on track to hit record levels in 2022.
The 46 least developed countries of the world, known at the UN as the LDC, have most to lose from global warming exceeding 1.5°C (2.7°F), and have been vocal in its defence.
‘COP27 must send a strong political signal and show that the world is united on fighting climate change,’ said Madeleine Diouf Sarr, from Senegal, the chair of the LDC grouping.
‘This means that at COP27, the 1.5°C (2.7°F) goal must remain within reach by having strong commitments to halving emissions by 2030,’ she told the BBC.
Also at stake during the climate talks is a discussion to put in place a fund that will pay for loss and damage for countries hit by climate change.
Developing countries could walk out of talks if the issue of loss and damage is not addressed in the draft text of the treaty, insiders said.
