Some tactical tweaks are not overthinking – they’re just thinking, and the Manchester City manager’s decisions paid off

Not all tactical tweaks are the result of overthinking. Pep Guardiola did not simply pick the obvious starting XI. He did not pick the starting lineup that had propelled City through the Premier League run-in. He is criticised readily enough when he makes changes and City don’t win; this was an occasion when the change paid off. Guardiola made the necessary adjustment, and was rewarded with his third Champions League.

Until mid-February City, by their own remarkable standards, had not had a particularly great season. There were questions – entirely reasonable questions for all the subsequent sneering – about what Erling Haaland did to the balance of the side. When a player doesn’t involve himself in the play, when he has only 20-30 touches in a game as standard, how can he contribute to the maintenance of possession that is so necessary to providing the control that Guardiola prioritises? Yet Haaland, obviously, is a magnificent goalscorer and offers a major threat on the counter.

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