The far-right leader is a relatively inexperienced politician and may have little impact on European politics

The first far-right prime minister in postwar western Europe will be a woman: Giorgia Meloni. Assuming the exit polls are right, which is likely as they are in line with the last polling before the elections, the far right-dominated “centre-right” bloc will win about 42% of the vote. Because of the disproportionate system, and the lack of an electoral coalition between the centre-left Democratic party and the reformed Five Star Movement, this will give them a massive majority in parliament.

The most important change is in the internal power dynamics within the “right bloc”. Until 2018, the coalition was dominated by Silvio Berlusconi, who was problematic from all kind of perspectives, but he was not far right. In 2018, Matteo Salvini’s Lega became slightly bigger than Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, but now Meloni’s “post-fascist” Brothers of Italy will dominate the bloc.

Cas Mudde is a Guardian US columnist and the Stanley Wade Shelton UGAF professor in the school of public and international affairs at the University of Georgia

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