Heads up, Loonie traders! Canada will be printing its jobs report on Friday 1:30 pm GMT, and here’s what market watchers are expecting.
Planning on trading the event? Here are the points you need to know first:
How did the previous release turn out?
- Canada added 303.1K jobs in March vs. the consensus of a 101.5K increase
- The unemployment rate fell from 8.2% to 7.5%
Canada’s March jobs report also turned out waaay better than expected, just as it did in the previous month. The economy added 303.1K jobs, nearly thrice as much as the consensus of a 101.5K gain.
This was also enough to bring the jobless rate down from 8.2% to 7.5% – its lowest level since February 2020.
Underlying components of the report revealed that the gains were from both full-time and part-time hiring, which is a sign of good health for the labor market. This was likely an impact of lifting lockdown restrictions in large cities like Ontario and Quebec earlier this year.
In addition, the labor force participation rate rose to 65.2% to reflect confidence in the jobs situation while the underutilization rate posted another monthly decline to 14.7%.
What’s expected this time?
- Employment losses of 153.5K are expected for April
- The jobless rate could tick higher from 7.5% to 7.8%
A drop in hiring is expected for April, as fresh lockdowns were announced last month. The jobs report could show a reduction of 153.5K in employment, enough to bring the jobless rate up to 7.8%.
However, a smaller decline or a surprise gain in hiring could be enough to bolster confidence in the Canadian economy, as well as BOC tightening prospects.
Recall that the central bank already announced plans to taper its weekly purchases in their latest policy statement, beating most of its peers to the punch. Another stronger-than-expected outcome could mean strong gains for the Loonie, as this could fuel BOC rate hike hopes.
There aren’t much leading indicators to get clues from prior to the actual release, though, since the Ivey PMI will be released after the employment change report.
If you’re trying to decide which currency to trade against the Loonie, check out this MarketMilk™ performance ranking of CAD pairs to help you gauge which might be the strongest bullish or bearish rivals:
Not feeling confident about trading the event at all? That’s okay, you can always stay in the sidelines and observe the Loonie’s reaction to the release.
