The euro took cues from overall risk-taking last week.
Will this week’s slew of economic releases turn the investors’ focus to the region’s recovery trends?
Check out the potential catalysts you should watch out for if you’re trading the euro this week.
Closely watched economic releases
- Lower-tier releases don’t usually see sustained moves, but they can cause volatility that could present intraday trading opportunities
- Germany’s trade balance (Nov 9, 7:00 am GMT) to show improved overseas demand in September
- France’s industrial production (Nov 10, 7:45 am GMT) to slow down from 1.3% to 0.8% in September
- Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment (Nov 10, 10:00 am GMT) seen plummeting from 52.3 to 36.0
- German ZEW economic sentiment (Nov 10, 10:00 am GMT) to dip from -59.5 to -67.0 in November
- ECB’s economic bulletin (Nov 12, 7:00 am GMT) to support further easing in December
- Eurozone industrial production (Nov 12, 10:00 am GMT) to improve from 0.7% to 0.9%
- Eurozone quarterly employment change (Nov 13, 10:00 am GMT) up by 1.5% after 2.9% dip in Q3
- Eurozone second GDP estimate (Nov 13, 10:00 am GMT) seen at +12.7% (from initial reading of -11.8%)
Overall euro demand
- Clarity on U.S. election results translated to risk-taking and equities (and EUR) demand last week
- Coronavirus cases and the prospect of stricter or prolonged lockdowns will weigh on the region’s economic recovery trends
- Speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde will likely hint at further easing in December. Emphasis on downside risks could limit EUR’s gains
- EU and U.K. reps will resume Brexit deal talks in London this week. Watch out for compromises for a “level-playing field” in issues such as access to British fishing waters, workers’ rights, environmental protection, and state aid
Potential catalysts for CHF
- Switzerland’s unemployment rate (Nov 9, 6:45 am GMT) to inch up from 3.2% to 3.4% in October
- PPI (Nov 13, 7:30 am GMT) seen improving from -3.1% to -2.6% in October
- Upside surprises in the Eurozone’s data releases could inspire risk-taking (anti-CHF) in the region
- U.S. election headlines will continue to influence the demand for safe havens like the franc
Technical snapshot
- Stochastic is flagging EUR/USD’s “overbought” conditions
- EUR/NZD and EUR/AUD may be “oversold” on the daily time frame
- EMAs show the short-term demand for the euro against the yen, Loonie, pound, and the franc
- EUR/USD is on short and long-term bullish trends
- EUR/NZD and EUR/AUD are on short and long-term bearish trends
- The franc may be “oversold” against the Aussie and Kiwi
- Stochastic considers the franc “overbought” against the dollar on the daily time frame
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- CHF was most volatile against AUD, USD, NZD, and GBP in the last seven days
Missed last week’s price action? Read EUR & CHF’s price recap for Nov. 2 – 6!
