Hurricane watches were in effect in Florida Tuesday morning ahead of a strengthening Elsa as it passed west of the Florida Keys and entered the Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane watches for the western coast of Florida during the month of July are rare. Going back to 2008, there is no other instance of the National Weather Service in Tampa Bay issuing a hurricane watch in July.
By sunrise Tuesday, Elsa was battering the Florida Keys with tropical storm-force winds and torrential rainfall. Some of the highest wind gusts clocked included 62 mph in Key West and 64 mph in Sand Key.
By mid-morning, Elsa was a 60 mph tropical storm and showing signs of possible strengthening as it passed just west of Key West. This prompted the National Hurricane Center to raise the intensity guidance, forecasting a stronger Elsa as it approaches the western Florida coast over the next 24 hours.
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It’s forecasted to be a 70 mph tropical storm when nearing landfall on Wednesday. That speed is just shy of a Category 1 hurricane, opening the potential for an intensifying Elsa to be near or at hurricane strength when it makes landfall.
To gain more forecast certainty on the ultimate track and intensity of Elsa for landfall, hurricane hunters continued to fly missions in the storm on Tuesday. One of the hurricane hunter missions, however, was delayed taking off from Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, Mississippi, due to a flash flood warning and lightning in the area.
A tropical storm watch was also added Tuesday morning for portions of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts and included Savannah and Charleston, respectively.
Storm surge warnings remained in effect for parts of the Florida coast, including for Tampa Bay.
On Tuesday, Elsa was expected to move north-northwest before turning toward Florida that night. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near the Florida Keys Tuesday morning, move parallel to the west coast of Florida later Tuesday and make landfall on Wednesday.
While the forecast has the center staying offshore, parallel to the coast, tropical storm-force winds will extend 70 miles out from the center, so even if the center stays offshore, tropical storm conditions are expected for coastal areas. In fact, Elsa is an extremely lopsided storm with most of the rain located east of the center. This means the heavy rain and tornado risk could reach well into central Florida.
Landfall is expected Wednesday morning north of Tampa as a strong tropical storm.
After landfall, Elsa is expected to weaken as it moves inland but continue to bring strong winds and heavy rainfall to parts of Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia.
Peak storm surge was forecast to be 3 to 5 feet above normally dry ground, including Tampa Bay. Elsewhere up and down the west coast of Florida, 1 to 3 feet to 2 to 4 feet were also possible.
Rainfall is expected to be the most widespread threat, with 4 to 6 inches (isolated areas up to 8 inches) possible across Florida, Georgia and South Carolina and up to 5 inches of rain for portions of North Carolina and southeast Virginia.
Flood watches were issued ahead of the heavy rain threat, with 12 million people under those alerts across Florida and parts of southeast Georgia. Those remain in effect through Thursday.
Tornadoes were also possible across nearly the entire state of Florida on Tuesday associated with Elsa.
A meteorological coincidence: The last tropical cyclone to make landfall on the west coast of Florida in 2020 was Eta last November. The first tropical cyclone to make landfall on the west coast of Florida in 2020 will be Elsa in July. Both have similar tracks, approximately seven months apart, and start with E.
Source: | This article originally belongs to Nbcnews.com
