Biden’s approval rating stands at about 41%, yet the Democrats performed far better than many had expected
Leave the rest of the numbers aside for a moment and consider these figures. The party of the sitting president has lost seats in the US House of Representatives in all but two midterms since 1946. The average loss is 27 seats. According to one analysis, presidents with approval ratings above 50% have seen their parties lose an average of 14 seats since 1946. Presidents with approval ratings below 50% have seen their parties lose an average of 37 seats.
Polls suggest Joe Biden’s current approval rating stands at about 41%. Republicans needed to take five seats to win the chamber. It remains likely that they’ll get them in the hours and days ahead. But the fact that they haven’t already – and that Democrats have a non-trivial chance of actually keeping the chamber – is highly significant. The Democrats may have had the best midterm a president’s party has experienced in 20 years – since 9/11 brought Republicans to slight, trend-bucking gains in the House and Senate in 2002.
