We’re focusing on the euro this afternoon with a forex calendar stocked with plenty of data ahead from Europe. Will the latest trade and sentiment data get traders moving on this simple range setup in EUR/CHF?
Before moving on, ICYMI, today’s Daily U.S. Session Watchlist looked at NZD/USD running into potential resistance, so be sure to check that out to see if there is still a potential play!
Intermarket Update:
| Equity Markets | Bond Yields | Commodities & Crypto |
|
DAX: 16046.52 -0.05% FTSE: 7300.40 -0.05% S&P 500: 4701.72 +0.09% NASDAQ: 15982.36 +0.07% |
US 10-YR: 1.497% +0.044 Bund 10-YR: -0.24% +0.006 UK 10-YR: 0.873% +0.017 JPN 10-YR: 0.054% -0.011 |
Oil: 82.27 +1.23% Gold: 1,826.30 +0.52% Bitcoin: $66,111.25 +5.47% Ether: $4,760.48 +2.90% Solana: $245.65 -0.88% |
Fresh Market Headlines and Economic Data:
Dow hits record high after U.S. infrastructure bill passed
Federal Reserve Governor Randal Quarles to exit Fed at the end of the year
Fed Evans sees inflation risk, but is largely temporary
U.S. consumers’ income and spending expectations rose to 5.7% in October from 5.3% in September
Bank of England Governor Bailey says the BOE will act if inflation risks grow
Eurozone Sentix investor confidence hits 18.3 in November vs. 16.9 previous
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
Japan Average Case Earnings at 11:30 pm GMT
Japan Current Account at 11:50 pm GMT
Australia New Home Sales at 12:00 am GMT (Nov. 9)
Australia Business Confidence at 12:30 am GMT (Nov. 9)
Japan Eco Watchers Survey at 5:00 am GMT (Nov. 9)
Germany Trade Balance, Current Account at 7:00 am GMT (Nov. 9)
ZEW Economic Sentiment at 10:00 am GMT (Nov. 9)
If you’re not familiar with the forex market’s main trading sessions, check out our Forex Market Hours tool.
What to Watch: EUR/CHF
On the one hour chart above of EUR/CHF, we’ve got a simple technical setup to watch in the form of a range play. Over the past week and a half, the market has been bouncing back between 1.0540 – 1.0600, and with the general trend in favor of the Swiss franc over the euro, this current retest of the top of the range leans in favor of the bears winning once again.
Up ahead, that sentiment may be helped, or hurt, but the latest ZEW economic sentiment data, which is expected to dip lower once again. If we do get another tick lower, that could influence traders to lean bearish on the euro for the session, which could make the 1.0600 area solid level to short for the bears once again. With a daily average true range of around 48 pips, there is a possibility that this market could make its way back to the bottom of the range if we see a very disappointing read.
Of course, if we get a surprise positive read from the sentiment data, we may see some euro buying in the short-term. But it would likely take a positive round of updates from all of the European releases during the London session, especially from Germany which includes its own economic sentiment read and the latest trade balance data. A break above the 1.0600 wouldn’t be an immediate buy scenario given the overall downtrend, so watch for a sustained market above that level before considering putting together a long position.
