AUD/CAD bears may be seeing another opportunity in the works that could draw in sellers into the technical downtrend. Will upcoming data from Australia, China and oil inventories bring in the volatility that would make this pair worth checking out?
Before moving on, ICYMI, today’s Daily U.S. Session Watchlist looked at an opportunity forming on EUR/AUD as the pair formed a symmetrical triangle, so be sure to check that out to see if there is still a potential play!
Intermarket Update:
| Equity Markets | Bond Yields | Commodities & Crypto |
|
DAX: 14380.91 +3.31% FTSE: 6719.13% S&P 500: 3821.35 -0.54% NASDAQ: 12609.16 -2.41% |
US 10-YR: 1.601% +0.047 Bund 10-YR: -0.278% +0.00 UK 10-YR: 0.757% +0.002 JPN 10-YR: 0.11% +0.015 |
Oil: 64.71 -2.09% Gold: 1,678.00 -1.20% Bitcoin: 51665.00 +0.35% Ethereum: 1,788.67 +8.67% |
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
Nasdaq roars back 3.6% for its best day in 4 months, S&P 500 adds more than 1%
Oil slips to $68 as rally fizzles before U.S. supply report
Vaccine rollout, U.S. stimulus boost global economic outlook: OECD
Optimism Among U.S. Small Businesses Rises Slightly in February — NFIB
In January 2021 the seasonally adjusted Italian industrial production index increased by 1.0% m/m
‘The recession is behind us’ – French economy predicted to rebound after Covid slump
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
API Crude Oil Stock change at 9:30 pm GMT
RBA Governor Lowe speech at 10:00 pm GMT
Fed Kaplan speech at 11:05 pm GMT
Australia Consumer Confidence at 11:30 pm GMT
Australia Building Permits at 12:30 am GMT (Mar. 10)
China Inflation at 1:30 am GMT (Mar. 10)
Australia New Home Sales at 4:00 am GMT (Mar. 10)
France Industrial Production at 7:45 am GMT (Mar. 10)
Italy PPI at 9:00 am GMT (Mar. 10)
What to Watch: AUD/CAD
On the one hour chart above of AUD/CAD, we can see the pair has been in a clear downtrend over the past month, and where bounces have been opportunities to sell at better prices. Is that the case again as the pair moves higher during today’s session?
From a technical point of view, the behavior is setting up a textbook short play as the market retests both a previous broken swing low and the Fibonacci retracement area.
We can also see stochastic signaling potentially over bought conditions short-term, and when all put together, may draw in technical sellers looking to play the trend.
But we do have several potential catalysts for the Aussie ahead during the Asia session with Australian consumer sentiment and Chinese inflation data.
We’ve also got API crude oil inventory data that could have a short-term affect on the Loonie if oil gets moving on the report.
For us, we’re watching out for a decline in oil inventory data and weaker-than-expected Australian/Chinese data to potentially play the pair to the short side.
If that scenario plays out, we’re watching for bearish reversal candles around the broken support level / Fibonacci retracement area before considering a short position.
