California‘s ambitious EV goal could require significant power grid upgrades to meet the demand by 2045 – and scientists estimate the shift will cost up to $20 billion.
The West Coast state is set to enforce a ban on the sale of new gas-powered cars by 2035, but researchers at the University of California (UC), Davis officials will to add 50 percent more transmission lines for power stations.
However, to hit the carbon neural timeline a decade later, California will need 67 percent more lines as the number of EVs on the road is set to increase by 96 percent.
The upgrades are due to requiring an additional 25 gigawatts of power, which is equivalent to more than 62 million solar panels.
California ‘s ambitious EV goal could require significant power grid upgrades to meet the demand by 2045 – and scientists estimate the shift will cost up to $20 billion
The team noted that the infrastructure costs will be offset by a reduction in electricity rate between $0.01 and $0.06/kWh by 2045,’ the team shared in the study published in PNAS.
‘While electricity price may decrease, the overall bill of all consumers will still increase due to the growth of total electricity consumption, which will make up for the total upgrade costs.’
Researchers determined that there are over 1,600 substations and more than 5,000 feeders stretched throughout three regions: Los Angeles, San Diego and northern California.
With the current transmission lines, or feeders, seven percent will be overloaded by 2025, 27 percent five years later and half by 2035.
However, the team found that two-thirds of the feeders will be overloaded by 2045 due to demand for electrical power reaching double of the current capacity.
With the current transmission lines, seven percent will be overloaded by 2025, 27 percent five years later and half by 2035. But two-thirds of the feeders will be overloaded by 2045
While the outdate infrastructure will persist throughout California, the study identified the Bay Area as experiencing the brunt.
‘The total upgrade need grows dramatically from 3.5 GW in 2030 to 25.4 GW in 2045,’ reads the study.
‘The range of circuit upgrade costs is quite broad, with the total cost by 2045 ranging from $6 billion to $20 billion.’
Researchers also noted the EV-related upgrade cost over the next 20 years is set to be up to 40 percent more than the current grid costs.
California became the first in the world to ban the sale of new gas-powered cars when it approved the policy in April 2022.
The move means automakers will be required to reduce the number of gas guzzlers they sell in order to reach the first quota of the plan that mandates 35 percent of new cars, SUVs and small pickups sold in by 2026 be zero-emission vehicles.
The quota increases every two years, with 51 percent by 2028, 68 percent by 2030 and then 100 percent of all new vehicles sold should be battery-powered five years later – 20 percent of these sold can be hybrid plug-ins.
The ban is part of California’s larger plan to move completely away from fossil fuels and use 100 percent renewable energy by 2045.
But it does not stop residents from driving their current gas cars or buying and selling them used.
