The summit “will get a lot of attention, but I’m not expecting big, sweeping agreements that will change the course of the world,” said Victor Cha, a former White House National Security Council official. “The broader indicators are that these two countries are on this long-term competitive track.”

But this may be a rare instance where a face-to-face meeting is itself a breakthrough. It will be the first time Biden and Xi have met in person since they spoke a year ago at a summit meeting in Bali, Indonesia.

Since that time, relations between the two have been strained by the Chinese spy balloon that floated over the U.S. and harrowing encounters in the air and sea lanes between China and Taiwan, the self-ruling island that China claims as its own. In June, Biden referred to Xi as “a dictator,” a slur that caught even senior U.S. officials off guard.

At the closed-door summit whose location has been kept secret for security reasons, Biden is expected to press Xi to use his leverage to stop North Korea from supplying weapons to Russia in the war with Ukraine. Another of Biden’s aims is getting Xi to persuade Iran not to use its proxies in the Middle East to combat Israel in the war with Hamas.

“President Biden will make the point to President Xi that Iran acting in an escalatory, destabilizing way that undermines stability across the broader Middle East is not in the interest of the PRC [Peoples’ Republic of China] or of any other responsible country,” Jake Sullivan, the White House National Security Adviser, told reporters in a briefing Monday. “And the PRC, of course, has a relationship with Iran and it’s capable, if it choose, of making those points directly to the Iranian government.”

Having laid out what he wants of Xi, Biden can ill afford to see the Chinese president defy him and permit Iranian and North Korean meddling in the two wars. Biden has billed himself as a deft negotiator on the world stage and could face a backlash if relations with China deteriorate after the summit.

As for Xi, he would like to see fewer high-level visits to Taiwan from U.S. officials, former diplomats said. Xi may also use the meeting to drive home a point he made in March, when he accused the U.S. and the West of making moves that amount to the “containment, encirclement and suppression of China,” impeding the nation’s development.

With so much on the agenda, the meeting could well surpass the three-hour session the two had in Bali. When finished, Biden will hold a news conference in which he is expected to emphasize points of agreement rather than use the forum to paint Xi as a threat. In the run-up to the summit past and present U.S. officials have pointed to weaknesses in the Chinese economy as a reason Xi may want to take a more cooperative stance.

“We’re not trying to decouple from China,” Biden told reporters. “What we’re trying to do is change the relationship for the better. From my perspective, if … the average citizen of China was able to have a decent-paying job, that benefits them and it benefits all of us.”

Much can go wrong — for both men. The Chinese are sensitive to slights and breaches of protocol. Were they to get out of hand, any of the planned protests in San Francisco could quickly overwhelm the summit. In 2006, when then-Chinese President Hu Jintao visited George W. Bush at the White House, a heckler disrupted the carefully staged welcome ceremony.

“The Chinese complained about that for two months afterward,” Cha recalled.

Biden has his own worries. Unless Congress passes a spending bill, the U.S. government will shut down at 12:01 a.m. Saturday. Biden hasn’t ruled out returning early from San Francisco, where he’s also attending a summit of Asian-Pacific economies, to keep the government up and running. An early exit would prove embarrassing to Biden, who has sought to portray democracy as a better-governing model than autocracy.

A shutdown, Sullivan cautioned, “would send a signal to the world that the United States cannot pull together on a bipartisan basis to sustain government funding and to show a united face to the world at a moment where you see this turbulence around the world.”

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