A weekend gap set AUD/CHF back from a possible upside breakout.
Will the bulls make another attempt today? Or will we see a deeper pullback?
Before moving on, ICYMI, I’ve listed the potential economic catalysts that you need to watch out for this week. Check them out before you place your first trades today!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
[Weekend news] US, EU, UK, Japan agree to remove selected Russian banks from SWIFT
Japan industrial production drops 1.3% on month in January
Japan retail sales rise 1.5% y/y in January
Australia’s company gross profits rise 2.0% In Q4
Australia retail sales rebound by 1.8% in January (after 4.4% drop in December) as economy weathers Omicron
Japan housing starts growth eases from 4.2% to 2.1% in January
Swiss KOF economic barometer fell from 107.2 to 105.0 in February
Swiss GDP up by 0.3% in Q4 2021 after 1.9% uptick in Q3
Putin places nuclear forces on alert as Ukraine agrees to talks with Russia
U.S. Chicago PMI at 2:45 pm GMT
Australia’s AIG manufacturing index at 9:30 am GMT
China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs at 1:00 am GMT (Mar 1)
RBA’s monetary policy decision at 3:30 am GMT (Mar 1)
Use our new Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the forex market’s price action! ? ?️
AUD/CHF 1-hour Forex Chart
In case you missed it, Big economies like the U.S., EU, U.K., and Japan have cut off some Russian banks from the SWIFT global banking system. This will make it harder and less secure for these banks to make international trades. Meanwhile, Putin has ordered his military to put Russia’s nuclear deterrence forces on high alert. Yikes!
The escalation over the weekend weighed on “risky” bets like Aussie and dragged AUD/CHF down from .6700 to the .6650 area.
Luckily for the bulls, the 100 and 200 SMAs had held as support and now AUD/CHF looks ready to retest a key resistance area. Will the bulls legitimize last week’s “breakout” above the .6685 resistance?
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is sharing its March monetary policy decisions tomorrow.
Markets don’t expect a rate hike from the central bank so any hints of rate hikes sometime in the first half of 2022 might boost AUD/CHF above the .6700 resistance and previous highs.
But don’t forget that the Ukraine drama ain’t over yet! If we see any more conflict escalation over the U.S. and early Asian sessions, then traders could seek safe-havens like the franc and drag AUD/CHF below the 100 and 200 SMAs. Heck, we could even see AUD/CHF retest a trend line support on the 1-hour time frame!
