Models can give us an idea, but are very sensitive to what we don’t know
Mathematical models simulated vast numbers of possible futures for after the UK government lifts Covid restrictions in England from 19 July. Many sources of uncertainty mean we don’t know which one, if any, of these projections might occur.
First, even with fixed assumptions about the epidemic, the play of chance produces wide prediction intervals. For example, assuming people substantially relax their cautious behaviour after 19 July, the Warwick models lead to peak Covid hospital admissions of 900 to 3,000 a day around the end of August.
