If you thought last week was a busy one, it ain’t got nothing on this one coming up.
Brace yourselves for major central bank announcements and a bunch of jobs figures!
Here’s a list of the top-tier economic calendar events you’ll need to watch out for:
Major Economic Events:
RBA monetary policy statement (Feb. 1, 3:30 am GMT) – First up is Australia’s central bank decision on the first of February, and analysts are saying we could see some rate hike guidance this time.
Even if the RBA keeps rates on hold at 0.10% for the time being, policymakers might drop hints on when they’re likely to increase borrowing costs.
In particular, Aussie bulls are hoping that RBA head Lowe would drop his cautious tone or possibly even warm up to the idea of an August hike.
New Zealand quarterly jobs report (Feb. 1, 9:45 pm GMT) – After a 2.0% surge in hiring in Q3 2021, employment gains likely slowed in Q4 to a meager 0.3% uptick.
Still, this might be enough to keep the unemployment rate steady at 3.4% for the period. Also, keep in mind that New Zealand has been printing upside surprises in its jobs report for the past four quarters, so there might be a solid chance of seeing another stronger-than-expected reading.
BOE monetary policy decision (Feb. 3, 12:00 pm GMT) – The BOE statement could be an interesting one, as the U.K. central bank is widely expected to hike rates from 0.25% to 0.50%.
Refraining to do so could keep pound traders worried about the risk of stagflation, as price levels seem to be surging out of control while growth remains stagnant. No changes to asset purchases are eyed.
ECB monetary policy statement (Feb. 3, 12:45 pm GMT) – The ECB will also make their policy decision on Thursday, but this might turn out to be a dud.
Lagarde and her fellow policymakers are likely to sit on their hands once more, keeping rates on hold at 0.00% for the nth time and probably refrain from dropping any clues on when they could reduce stimulus.
Canadian jobs report (Feb. 4, 1:30 pm GMT) – Job losses are expected in Canada for January, as the economy probably shed 91.5K positions for the month.
This would erase most of the earlier 54.7K gains in hiring while likely bringing the jobless rate up from 5.9% to 6.2%.
U.S. non-farm payrolls (Feb. 4, 1:30 pm GMT) – Slower jobs growth is eyed for Uncle Sam, as the NFP reading is projected to come in at 166K for January. This could still keep the jobless rate steady at 3.9%.
Although a slowdown in employment is typical for this time of the year, Omicron concerns might have also seeped into the jobs market and weighed on hiring activity.
Many are looking to the average hourly earnings figure to see if consistent wage growth would be enough to suggest that the U.S. economy is returning to full employment.
Forex Setup of the Week: GBP/AUD
GBP/AUD 4-hour Forex Chart
Bullish flag or correction time?
Either way, GBP/AUD is stalling around the 1.9200 handle as pound and Aussie traders think about their next moves.
Stochastic seems to be suggesting that buyers are plenty exhausted and could let seller take over for a while. The oscillator has room to head south, so price could follow suit until oversold conditions are met.
The Fibonacci retracement tool shows where more buyers might be hanging out, and the 61.8% level looks like a prime entry spot.
Not only does this line up with the former range resistance, but it’s also near the 1.8950 minor psychological level. A shallow pullback could already find support at the 50% Fib that’s right smack in line with the 1.9000 handle.
If pound bulls or Aussie bears are waaay too eager to jump out, we might see the bullish flag continuation pattern play out.
I’d pay close attention to the RBA and BOE decisions when trading this one!
