The economic consequences of the war will not be confined to the countries fighting it. We must start developing their recovery plans
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the sweeping sanctions the US and Europe have imposed on Russia in response, have triggered economic disruptions at four levels: direct, blowback, spillover, and systemic. To contain their longer-term consequences, we must start working on recovery plans now.
Needless to say, the Ukrainian and Russian economies are being hit the hardest. Economic activity in Ukraine is likely to contract by well over a third this year, aggravating the rapidly escalating humanitarian crisis. Already, the war has led to more than 750 civilian casualties and driven 1.5 million Ukrainians to flee to neighbouring countries, with millions more on the move internally.
