The west must stop dithering and reaffirm that all European states – including Ukraine – should be independent and free

As Russian troops mass on the frontiers of Ukraine, threatening the largest war in Europe since 1945, the whole world is trying to guess Vladimir Putin’s intentions. But the strategic question the democracies of Europe and North America need to ask is: what are our intentions?

Putin’s long-term goal in eastern Europe is, in fact, perfectly clear. He wants to restore as much as possible of the empire, great power status and sphere of influence that Russia lost so dramatically 30 years ago, with the disintegration of the Soviet Union in December 1991. It is only his tactics that keep us guessing. Since 2008, when he secured two secessionist chunks of Georgia by force, and most certainly since his seizure of Crimea in 2014, it has been evident that he is ready to use any and all means, from diplomacy and disinformation to cyber-attacks and outright war.

Timothy Garton Ash is a Guardian columnist

Guardian Newsroom: Will Russia invade Ukraine? Join Mark Rice-Oxley, Andrew Roth, Luke Harding, Nataliya Gumenyuk and Orysia Lutsevych discussing the developments with Russia and Ukraine on Tuesday 8 February, 8pm GMT | 9pm CET | midday PDT | 3pm EDT. Book tickets here

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