Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
- CEBR: unemployment to rise towards 3m by Christmas
- 1.5m jobs at risk as Covid-19 restrictions continue
- Coming up: Nobel prize for Economics
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
The job market outlook is negative for the coming months…
…the coming winter looks set to be a tough one.
The newly announced furlough scheme is well targeted to soften the blow for businesses in the hospitality sector which now seem most at risk from another shut down. However, from March/ April we know that there are a range of economic knock-on effects from lockdowns and not all businesses in need will find that they are eligible.
So while the scheme is an important lifeline for pubs and restaurants, our rough-and-ready estimates show that it will save at most 150,000 – 250,000 of the 1.5m jobs we estimated will be lost by Christmas.”
Related: UK at ‘critical juncture’ as No 10 unveils three-tier Covid alert system
The strong Q3 performance was driven by consumer spending and the release of pent-up demand as COVID-19 restrictions were relaxed.
However, these effects will wane heading into Q4, while the economy will also face the end of the furlough scheme and likely higher unemployment, tighter COVID-19 restrictions and uncertainties around the future of the UK-EU trading relationship.
Related: Economics Nobel prize won by academics for tackling poverty
Related: IMF and World Bank must act fast after Covid caught policymakers napping
