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Encouragingly, UK business confidence has risen to its highest level since May 2022.
The Lloyds Bank Business Barometer, released this morning, has risen this month by 11 points to 32%, helped by rising optimism about the outlook for the economy.
“Business confidence has seen a surge this month with economic optimism and trading prospects bolstering firms. With hiring intentions improving, we may see employment growth picking up in the coming months. Tentative signs of easing wage pressures suggest that businesses’ difficulties in finding staff may have started to ease.
“Although the measures in the Budget were widely trailed, it is yet to be seen what the full impact of the Chancellor’s announcement, along with the surprise rise in inflation and recent increase in interest rates, will have had on business confidence.”
When the numbers were last adjusted the UK economy managed to avoid a technical recession by the skin of its teeth, coming in at 0%, after a -0.2% contraction in Q3.
The rebound in Q4 was helped in some part by a strong rebound in consumer spending due to the Football World Cup in Qatar, and today’s final adjustment will hope that this holds, with personal consumption expected to come in at 0.1%.
