Start your trading week right by prepping for these top-tier catalysts and checking out my potential trade setup.
Don’t forget to review which factors drove forex market price action last week, too!
Major Economic Events:
RBA monetary policy statement (June 1, 4:30 am GMT) – No actual changes to the central bank’s 0.10% cash rate are eyed, but Aussie traders are keen to find out if policymakers are considering tapering soon.
RBA officials are likely to hold preliminary discussions on whether or not to extend the three-year yield target and taper purchases under its longer-term asset purchase program.
Keep in mind that data from the Land Down Under have been mostly upbeat, although fresh lockdowns in some cities and a slow vaccine rollout could be enough reason to stay cautious.
Australian GDP (June 2, 1:30 am GMT) – For the first quarter of 2021, the Australian economy is expected to have grown by 1.1%, slower compared to the earlier 3.1% expansion.
Stronger than expected results could be a big boost for the Aussie, as it could assure bulls that the economy is resilient enough to withstand further headwinds. Weak data, on the other hand, could dash RBA taper hopes.
Canadian employment data (June 4, 12:30 pm GMT) – Another month of job losses is expected from Canada, although the expected reduction of 20.3K would be considerably lower than the earlier 207.1K drop.
Still, this might bring the unemployment rate up a notch from 8.1% to 8.2%. Underlying components such as full-time hiring and the labor force participation rate would likely impact the Loonie’s reaction.
U.S. non-farm payrolls report (June 4, 12:30 pm GMT) – After last month’s NFP miss, can Uncle Sam deliver a more impressive report this time?
A slightly stronger pace of hiring at 670K versus the earlier 266K gain is expected for May, likely bringing the jobless rate down from 6.1% to 5.9% for the month. Average hourly earnings could slow from 0.7% to 0.2% to reflect weaker wage growth.
Keep in mind that leading indicators due throughout the week (ISM manufacturing and services PMI, ADP non-farm employment change) are worth keeping tabs on, too!
Forex Setup of the Week: AUD/USD
It’s shaping up to be a busy week for the Aussie, as the RBA decision is coming up and Australia’s GDP is also on tap.
I’ve got this potential AUD/USD selloff on my radar since the pair just dipped below the neckline support around the .7700 handle.
If the GDP report disappoints or the RBA sounds more cautious than anticipated, price could gain bearish momentum and tumble by the same height as the chart formation. That’s roughly 200 pips!
Technical indicators are looking mixed, though. Stochastic is turning higher from the oversold region to suggest that buyers could take over from here. Meanwhile, moving averages appear to be attempting a bearish crossover that could draw more sellers out.
Of course the U.S. NFP release might push this pair around also, with a much stronger than expected pickup in hiring possibly boosting the scrilla across the board.
