The only way to stop B.1.1.529 and other mutations is through testing, masks, and getting vaccines to everyone in the world
Many of the world’s leading Covid-19 experts are raising the alarm about a new variant which has been described as “horrific” and “the worst ever”. Authorities are understandably worried. But it’s important to place their concerns in context. We have detected variants before that looked worrying but never took off. It’s early days for a variant that wasn’t on anyone’s radar until only last week. Much about the new variant is still unknown. The very fact we have detected this new variant early is good news, and shows that the global surveillance system is working. But the high number of mutations detected in its genome are concerning. This is the primary reason scientists around the world are warning it must be taken seriously.
Every time a virus replicates, it has the opportunity to mutate. The more opportunities the virus has to replicate, the larger the number of mutations, and the higher the chances of new variants emerging – that much is simple mathematics. Most mutations will go unnoticed and have a neutral or negative impact on the resulting virus. Occasionally we will see mutations that fundamentally change the nature of the virus and what it is able to do.
Kit Yates is director of the Centre for Mathematical Biology at the University of Bath and author of The Maths of Life and Death
