The Liberal Democrat triumph in this week’s byelection is a damning verdict on Boris Johnson’s leadership
Byelection earthquakes don’t come much bigger than North Shropshire. The result – the former 23,000 Conservative majority overturned into a 6,000-vote win for the new Liberal Democrat MP Helen Morgan – is a bombshell for Boris Johnson, a wake-up call for the Conservative party and a life-enhancing triumph for the Lib Dems. It is also, perhaps, a sign that party politics is emerging from a period largely defined by the Brexit referendum of 2016, with tactical anti-Conservative voting now playing an increasingly important role.
Thursday’s 34% swing to the Lib Dems was spectacular by any yardstick. The Tory share of the vote collapsed by 31 percentage points, almost a modern record. This enabled Ed Davey’s party to come from a distant third place 10% share in 2019 to reach 47%. That surge produced the biggest Conservative to Lib Dem swing since the Christchurch byelection in 1993. Back then, the Lib Dem win was a damning verdict on a Conservative government’s economic competence. The verdict in North Shropshire is no less damning; but this one was focused squarely on the prime minister’s own abject performance and lack of integrity.
