The exponential spread of the Delta variant, and the uncertainties surrounding it, mean pausing the roadmap is justified
Since February, when Boris Johnson unveiled a four-step roadmap to ending all Covid restrictions in England, progress has been steady and at times relatively serene compared with the periods of abject confusion and chaos that went before. The successful rollout of the vaccination programme allowed targets to be met, including the substantial “step three” easing of restrictions on 17 May.
But as Boris Johnson recognised in his press conference today, the spread of the new Delta variant – which now accounts for 96% of Covid cases in the United Kingdom – has upended calculations. Latest data suggests it is 40-80% more transmissible than the Alpha variant, which originated in Kent. The variant partly evades vaccines and appears to increase the risk of hospitalisation. Hospital admission rates are increasing by 50% a week and 61% in the north-west. A significant third wave is thus under way and the government’s scientific advisers do not know the extent to which current rates of vaccination and acquired immunity will keep it in check. A summer surge in hospitalisations could overwhelm an already overstretched NHS.
