The planet cannot afford a second term for the far-right president who has resurged in the polls
On Sunday, Brazilian electors will cast their vote in a tight contest that will not only set the course for this extraordinarily polarised country but also have a powerful impact on the future of the world. Hopes that the far-right incumbent, Jair Bolsonaro, would be decisively rejected in the first round were dashed when he fared far better than expected, with 43% of votes, and his challenger, the former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, fell just short of an outright majority with 48%. Eleventh-hour handouts to the poorest and lavish quantities of disinformation have aided Mr Bolsonaro’s recovery.
The hope is that his momentum is already fading. But the polls vary, and a second presidential term would be bad news not just for Brazilians but also the rest of us. The primary danger is climate catastrophe. As the UN’s environment agency warns that there is no credible route to limit global warming to 1.5C, deforestation in the Amazon is at a high: a carbon sink could become a carbon emitter. Criminal syndicates of loggers and ranchers race to do their worst for fear that a new administration will rein them in. More than 2bn trees have been felled during Mr Bolsonaro’s term in office. He has also fostered an increasingly dangerous culture for environmental defenders – as exposed by the murder of the activist Bruno Pereira and the Guardian contributor Dom Phillips this June. In contrast, analysts suggest a victory for Lula could see an 89% cut in rainforest loss.
