The allowances are either too generous or something has gone wrong in the design
The point to remember about BP chief executive Bernard Looney’s infamous comment about how the company is “a cash machine at these types of prices” was that it was made a year ago – so before the price of hydrocarbons surged a second time after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February. BP’s profits today, then, are exactly what you’d expect to see. The third quarter figure was $8.2bn (£7bn) – more than double the same period a year ago.
And the best guide to how far BP is beating its own definition of a par score is the pace of its share buybacks. At a steady $65-a-barrel oil price, the company reckons to spend $1bn a quarter, or $4bn a year, on buying in its own equity. At the nine-month stage of 2022, it has already earmarked $8.5bn for that purpose thanks to a Brent oil price that has been above (and sometimes well above) $85 for 11 of the past 12 months. BP isn’t just outstripping its base case assumptions – it is smashing them.
