President Joe Biden and Xi met in person for the first time in November, signaling the potential for improvement in what is often described as the world’s most important bilateral relationship. The two leaders pledged to strengthen communication between their countries and agreed on Blinken’s China visit.
One goal of the trip was to resume talks on climate change and military relations that China suspended after Pelosi’s Taiwan visit, White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said at a news briefing this week. Blinken was also expected to raise the war in Ukraine and U.S. concerns about China’s “no limits” partnership with Russia.
Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said one of the biggest problems in the relationship is a mutual lack of trust. The Chinese government “thinks that the U.S. contains and suppresses China,” he said, while the U.S. government “thinks that China wants to challenge U.S. leadership.”
After three years of pandemic isolation, China is eager to kickstart its economy. To that end, Xi has been on a diplomatic charm offensive, meeting with more than two dozen world leaders at home and abroad. The recent reassignment of Zhao Lijian, a former “wolf warrior” spokesperson for the foreign ministry, has also been seen as a sign of softening.
The conciliatory tone has been reflected in Chinese state media, where a commentary on Wednesday in People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, said China and the U.S. “should strive to make the list of cooperation longer and longer, not shorter and shorter.”
But the mood toward China in Washington is increasingly hostile, said Gao Zhikai, vice president of the Beijing-based Center for China and Globalization, expanding from former President Donald Trump’s tariffs to “all kinds of anti-China initiatives,” with a focus on Taiwan.
“I’m very pessimistic about U.S.-China relations, at least in the short term,” Gao said.
And that was before the news of the balloon, which appeared high above Montana after flying over the Aleutian Islands and through Canada.
U.S. officials said the balloon did not pose a threat to civil aviation and was of limited use in collecting intelligence, though Montana is home to one of America’s three nuclear missile silo fields at Malmstrom Air Force Base.
Feb. 3, 202300:49
Taiwan timelines
U.S.-China tensions, particularly over Taiwan, have spurred fears of armed conflict between the two superpowers. In a memo leaked to the media last week, Air Force Gen. Mike Minihan said his “gut” told him the U.S. would be at war with China in 2025, comments the Pentagon said were “not representative of the department’s view on China.”
Experts point out that military officials have a budgetary incentive to suggest war is at hand, with some criticizing Minihan’s comments as overblown and potentially dangerous.
“I think we are seemingly trying to talk ourselves into a conflict that doesn’t need to occur,” Scott Kennedy, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said at a briefing this week.
Minihan’s 2025 prediction is just one of several that have been put forward by senior U.S. officials. CIA director William Burns told an event at Georgetown University in Washington on Thursday that the U.S. knew “as a matter of intelligence” that Xi had ordered his military to be ready for a Taiwan invasion by 2027, though Burns said that didn’t necessarily mean that’s when it would happen.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in January that he seriously doubted a Chinese invasion of Taiwan was imminent.
The varying timelines being floated undermine the credibility of U.S. messaging on Taiwan, said Jude Blanchette, a China expert at CSIS.
“What we’re effectively signaling is we have no idea, and I’m not sure we understand just how damaging that is,” he said at the briefing.
Though China has not laid out any timeline of its own, it has kept up the pressure on Taiwan since Pelosi’s visit, sending warplanes toward the island almost daily. The planes are also crossing the median line, an unofficial boundary in the Taiwan Strait, far more frequently than in the past.
China has accused the U.S. of “hollowing out” its one-China policy, whereby Washington recognizes Beijing as the only legitimate government of China and has only unofficial relations with Taiwan. Beijing views visits like Pelosi’s as support for Taiwan’s formal independence, and it is likely to respond aggressively to any visit by her successor, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who has said he would like to visit Taiwan as well.
The U.S. is “constantly challenging China’s bottom line” on the Taiwan issue, said Wu.
Michael O’Hanlon, director of research in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, said the Biden administration should reassure China of its commitment to the one-China policy, while China should reaffirm that it has no intention of attacking Taiwan militarily.
“We’ve just got to avoid this war that some people seem to think is so likely,” he said, “and get things back to the kind of relationship where we have a lot of disagreements, but also some areas of cooperation and a more businesslike tone.”
Jennifer Jett and Larissa Gao reported from Hong Kong, and Megan Lebowitz reported from Washington.
Isaac Lee, Abigail Williams , Patrick Smith and Monica Alba contributed.
Source: | This article originally belongs to Nbcnews.com
