Seven Republican candidates will face off in the second primary debate

Tim Scott, in both debates now, has been unable to chime into the crime/police reform conversation, despite his work on the issue in Congress being a core component of his campaign.

This debate shows how Republicans are stuck in neutral on health care policy, speaking in abstractions.

Mike Pence talked about transferring power to the states; Ron DeSantis called for “more power for people and the doctor-patient relationship.” Since the failed attempt to repeal Obamacare in 2017, which backfired politically, the GOP has largely steered clear of this issue.

DeSantis took a question about the state’s imploding property insurance market and made it about government entitlement programs. The state become Florida’s biggest insurer as private insurance companies continue to flee and people can’t get coverage. 

Ali Vitali

A lengthy debate about health care … it’s feeling like the 2020 Democratic primary again.

NBC News is watching the debate at New England College, with eight college students who vote in New Hampshire.

During the commercial break, students shared their first impressions of the debate.

“I think that it’s clear that there is a common enemy in this debate, which is Vivek Ramaswamy, and kudos to them for coming out and doing that, but they are not giving him adequate time to respond to that with good rebuttals,” Brendan Bunnell, 22, a student at the Univesity of New Hampshire said.

“I’m not surprised by what Vivek is doing,” Jack Coleman, a 20-year-old Dartmouth student, said. “I think he’s coming out with some bold statements that track media sound bites, but lack of realistic chances of passing.”

Julia Matte, 21, a student at Saint Anselm College, said, “Like I predicted there’s a lot of bickering going on and not a lot of clear conversation.” 

Mark Murray

“Obamacare”: [Obi Wan Kenobi voice: ‘Now that’s a name I have not heard in a long time’]

Tough to have a debate when the candidates are 97.5% in agreement with each other on virtually every issue discussed.

Hallie Jackson

An observation on Haley taking a little dig (from what it sounded like) a minute ago at Ramaswamy regarding TikTok — they’re only 12 or 13 years apart, so I wouldn’t call it a “generational” difference but definitely speaks to how Ramaswamy, on the younger end of the spectrum, understands TikTok’s power with young people despite the China concerns.

Pence just seemed to blame DeSantis for the Parkland shooter not getting the death sentence. There was nothing DeSantis could do about that jury, and he actually pushed legislation after that to make it easier to get death sentences in Florida.

Pence has called for an expedited death penalty for mass shooters on the campaign trail when asked about this issue by voters.

Dasha Burns

Pence is a notorious question-dodger. Very good at sticking to talking points. A valiant attempt by the moderator to get her questions answered.

Ben Kamisar

Trump’s campaign seemingly responds to Christie’s attacks on the debate stage with this photo of the former governor:

Ramaswamy inveighs against America’s “Swiss cheese of a southern border.” If that sounds familiar, it’s because Donald Trump has used that exact same phrase to describe the southern border. Trump said in a 2016 debate: “Look at our borders. They’re like Swiss cheese.”

Talk about a forever war: a new drug war in Mexico

Meanwhile, Trump is fundraising off ‘RINOs’

Garrett Haake

Trump just sent out a fundraising email about the debate, noting he’s being attacked by RINOs in his absence. 

“As you read this email, disloyal ‘Republicans’ (RINOs, as we like to call them) are dishonestly attacking yours truly in tonight’s GOP debate and are playing right into Crooked Joe’s hands,” the email says. “But rather than wipe the floor tonight with a handful of RINOs while we’re leading in every poll, I’m spending my time on the one and only REAL mission: firing Crooked Joe and MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”

Shaquille Brewster

NBC News is watching the debate with a group of conservative voters at a home in Waukesha, Wisconsin.

Key nuggets from our group during the first break:

— They really can’t hear anything when more than one candidate is talking. It’s frustrating them, and they wish there was more structure.

— The Trump supporters here are still enjoying Christie’s answers.

— The group didn’t like that Tim Scott didn’t let Ramaswamy respond to his charge about working with China and Hunter Biden associate.

Republican operatives think the debate is bad and helps Trump

Feedback from Republican operatives not aligned with any campaign tonight: “Worst debate I’ve ever watched.”

Another: “Trump is winning tonight.”

Dasha Burns

Ramaswamy has now emphasized multiple times that his points and policy proposals are not “Republican or Democrat.”

Ali Vitali

Policing and reform could be a big moment for Scott — not just as the only Black man on the stage, but as the main Republican who tried to negotiate a police reform package in the Senate.

DeSantis noted in Florida they “back the Blue.” In Illinois, DeSantis took out ads on billboards offering $5,000 signing bonuses to police to relocate to his state and serve.

DeSantis again says Florida’s at a 50-year crime low. As we reported last week, that’s just an unverifiable number that law enforcement officials repeatedly warned was based on incomplete data.

NBC News is watching the debate at Aase Haugen, a Christian retirement community in Decorah, Iowa, with seven caucus-goers.

Kent Shuchmann, 77, voted for Trump twice but went into tonight’s debate leaning Nikki Haley. At the first commercial break, Kent says the only one who’s impressed him is Vivek Ramaswamy. He likes the 38-year-old businessman’s style.

“I’m impressed the way Ramaswamy fights. He’s there for battle and he battles well.”

Dasha Burns

DeSantis does look a lot more physically comfortable tonight compared to last time. The awkward smile, the strange volume modulation (recall the semi-shouted answer at the outset of the first debate): that’s all gone. It seems like he got some training and is a bit more at ease behind the lectern. 

Chart: The candidates with the most attacks out of the gate

Tim Scott targeted Joe Biden and Vivek Ramaswamy in seven attacks in the first 30-some minutes of the debate. Follow along with the NBC News debate attack tracker.

Chris Christie pulling a “Donald Duck” line reminds me of the 2016 campaign when a Democratic staffer dressed up in a duck costume to mock Trump for refusing to release his taxes.

In 2016, Chris Christie’s most famous debate moment was when he roasted Marco Rubio for repeating a canned line over and over. And yet, it really feels like some of his Trump lines tonight — including his “Donald Duck” bit — were rehearsed ahead of time.

Ali Vitali

Seeing all of these candidate spouses sitting behind the moderators, it strikes me that Haley’s husband is not there because he’s serving overseas for the next year.

Vivek vs. Pence again taking center stage

Headed into the night, there was a growing expectation that DeSantis and Haley would be a major focus, and likely spar with each other.

More than 30 minutes in, though, the attacks are once again flying between Ramaswamy and Pence, who came after Ramaswamy’s past debate performance during the first GOP debate in Milwaukee.

“Last debate he said we were all bought and paid for,” Pence said.

Ramaswamy did call everyone on stage “good people” in a departure from his past combative debate performance, but responded to Pence saying “these are good people tainted by a broken system.” 

Chris Christie takes another shot at Trump for not attending — and talks straight to camera to Trump. Gets some jeers for saying they will start calling Trump “Donald Duck” if he doesn’t start showing up.

Alexandra Marquez

The first question after the break is on crime, a topic where Republican candidates are uniquely positioned to address the issue, according to our latest NBC News poll. Forty-six percent of registered voters said that the Republican Party is better at dealing with crime than the Democratic Party. Just 20% of voters said Democrats are better at dealing with the issue.

Pro-Ukraine aid ad airs during debate as shutdown looms

Garrett Haake

A pro-Ukraine spending ad playing during the debate is interesting. From Defending Democracy Together — urging Republicans in Congress to stand by the country — even as the debate over aid to Ukraine fractures the GOP-controlled House and could be a factor in the seemingly-unavoidable shutdown coming this weekend.

Earlier today, 93 House Republicans voted for an amendment to ban security assistance for Ukraine from a defense funding bill.

Ali Vitali

Veepstakes never far from mind. South Dakota’s governor, and Trump ally/endorser, Kristi Noem with an ad about her state airing at the commercial break.

Follow candidate attacks on the attack tracker

Tim Scott lobbed the first attack of the night on another candidate on the stage against Vivek Ramaswamy over business in China. Follow along with the candidate attacks on NBC News’ debate attack tracker.

Jillian Frankel points out: Pence uses his speaking time (which was supposed to answer a question about Dreamers) to criticize Ramaswamy, as he did at the last debate. Pence repeated the “no time for on the job training” line that he used against Ramaswamy at the first debate.

Dasha Burns adds: Quick one-liners — not necessarily what the former VP is known for.

Allan Smith adds: He did not have the same thoughts about running with Donald Trump, who also had no experience in government.

And for Pence’s new line, Sarah Dean points out: That is now part of his stump!

The candidates clearly did their homework this time, dropping lots of research against opponents, which suggests they planned out attacks ahead of time with advisers.

Mark Murray points out: We are now 30 minutes into the debate, and it’s notable that the only real candidate criticisms about frontrunner Donald Trump have been about his no-show at the debate — but not on his multiple indictments or his position on abortion or position on other issues. Trump is leading the GOP race nationally by between 40 and 50 points.

Hallie Jackson responds: I take your point about the attacks on Trump so far mostly being focused on his debate no-show, but worth noting DeSantis did try to tie his attack back to spending: “He owes it to you to defend his record when they added 7.8 trillion to the debt that set the stage for the inflation that we have.”

And if you put that quote in a vacuum and tried to guess who said it — most ppl might’ve guessed Christie, not DeSantis.

“We’re going to get spending in Washington, D.C. under control,” says Mike Pence. It’s a difficult argument for the former VP to make now after he supported the heavy spending and deficit additions under Trump’s presidency.

Dasha Burns

Ramaswamy’s wife, Apoorva, and Desantis’ wife, Casey, are sitting one seat apart just behind the moderators.

Thirty minutes into the debate and most candidates’ first attacks are Vivek or Trump, not Haley as her camp anticipated but the night is young

Team Burgum shares a Ted Lasso reference as he struggles in polls

As we wait to see if/when Gov. Doug Burgum inserts himself again, just thinking about this tweet his team shared as he went onto the debate stage showing him touching a yellow “Believe” sign — a reference to Ted Lasso and his role as the underdog on stage tonight, just barely scraping by in polling to earn his spot on this stage.

DeSantis once said he was glad to stay out

Alec Hernández points out: It’s a bit ironic that DeSantis is trying to insert himself into this conversation. After the last debate, he told reporters in Iowa that he was glad to have stayed above the fray while other candidates got stuck in cross-talk.

Ali Vitali adds: Seems like Haley taking this advice more tonight than DeSantis is.

DeSantis attack on Trump gets high marks at New England College

NBC News is watching the debate at New England College, with eight college students who vote in New Hampshire.

“Ron DeSantis came out swinging against former president Trump and focused on his own record in Florida — that’s what he needs to do tonight to reassure tentative supporters like me that he deserves the nomination,” Jack Coleman, 20, a student at Dartmouth College.

Coleman also said, “Vivek is doing what I expected him to do — making waves with bold assertions like ending birthright citizenship but I want to hear how he’s going to fix our economy and broken education system. The border is important but deporting children born in America is not the way to solve that crisis.”

Scott more outspoken

Kristen Welker notes: Sen. Scott so far has been more outspoken in this debate than the first and has come out swinging against Ramaswamy, blasting him for saying the other candidates were “bought and paid for” in the last debate.

Bianca Seward adds: And using this opportunity to clean up his “bought and paid for? absolutely!” error from Milwaukee

Tim Scott firing a shot at Vivek!

Tim Scott firing a shot at Vivek! He’s been calling out Vivek, as well as other 2024 contenders, including Trump, by name in recent weeks in what has been a complete shift from the early days of his campaign.

Also Vivek never mentions Tim Scott on the trail so interesting he’s his main target tonight.

Are there moderators here? This is the third or fourth time that the candidates have erupted into infighting and speaking over one another with little intervention by the moderators.

Scott’s saying his priority is for Americans to be able to keep their money reminds me of how he nicknamed the 2017 Republican tax cut law “hashtag keep yo’ money.”

Christie has been uncharacteristically quiet thus far

Christie has been uncharacteristically quiet thus far, as he was during the first GOP debate.

Ramaswamy on ending birthright citizenship

Dasha Burns notes: Ramaswamy is doubling down on his plan to end birthright citizenship for undocumented immigrants.

Katherine Koretski adds: Ramaswamy on ending birthright citizenship, which he received to become a citizen of this country. Although he says his parents came here legally — but his father never took the citizenship test.

Alex Tabet points out: Trump said the same thing in 2018.

25 minutes in and candidates are keeping it peaceful

Biden has been a frequent target, and Trump has taken some hits, but the candidates on the stage have stayed away from attacking one another.

There is that happy warrior Ramaswamy again

There is that happy warrior Ramaswamy again.

After being so aggressive in the first debate, Ramaswamy is doing the opposite tonight. He’s repeatedly going out of his way to say that he agrees with all the Republicans on the stage and that they’re all good people.

NBC News is watching the debate with dozens of California conservative voters, less than two miles from the debate stage.

As the debate starts here in Simi Valley, little separates the big stage from a watch party venue of about 50 people beyond the golf course it sits on.

Inside, the room’s north star is two women: Gloria McComb and Sandra Perrin. As each candidate was announced, they would either clap or sit silently. DeSantis got claps. Christie did not. Tim Scott got a clap and a “woo.”

I asked Gloria why the enthusiasm for Scott? “What do you like about him?”

“Love,” she corrected. “I love love him. I love that he talks about where he came from. He doesn’t have a lot of experience, but I feel like he has a plan.”

Both said that if their two favorites don’t make a splash on stage, they will fully support another Trump presidency.

Dasha Burns

China is a topic DeSantis is extremely comfortable with and eager to talk about. It’s something he addresses regularly on the campaign trail. His policy of banning the Chinese Communist Party from buying land in Florida consistently gets applause on the trail, like it just did in the debate hall.

Ali Vitali

I’m surprised that Haley didn’t bring fentanyl and China into this border conversation. That’s usually one of her key talking points, allowing her to highlight her foreign policy experience.

I wonder whether that means we’ll see a Haley vs. DeSantis clash over China, then, and whether a former U.N. ambassador will outsmart a Florida governor on the issue.

Haley often gives a personal anecdote on the trail about immigration, saying, “My mother, who immigrated to this country years ago, always says if people break laws entering the country, they won’t follow laws when they’re in the country.” That line often elicits approval at her campaign events.

Garrett Haake

A former U.N. ambassador running on cutting off foreign aid to southern neighbors is a surprisingly unsophisticated policy on immigration.

Dasha Burns

Haley differs from the two men standing next to her — Ramaswamy and DeSantis. Both of them talk relentlessly about a military solution at the border, whereas she is focused on boosting CPB and ICE.

Christie is asked about the border, and he predictably accuses Trump of failing to complete the wall. It will be notable to see how many OTHER candidates take aim at Trump over the same issue.

Ali Vitali

Immigration is central to the debate over government funding — and it could be a reason the government shuts down. McCarthy is trying to focus the funding fight on the border. Wonder whether any of these candidates will connect this fight with the 2024 GOP debate over the issue.

Alexandra Marquez

The moderators pivot to border security, which is a topic that might resonate with voters across the political spectrum. In our latest NBC News poll, voters overwhelmingly said Republicans are better at dealing with border security than Democrats.

Fifty percent of registered voters said the GOP is better at dealing with border security, while just 20% said Democrats were better.

Earlier tonight, Hallie Jackson reported that Ramaswamy is looking to be more moderate in tone. At the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, he evoked Reagan’s 11th Commandment on the stage: Thou shall not speak ill of another Republican.

Ramaswamy says the “classical vs. populist” debate is a farce. Which is funny, considering that his back and forth with Pence in the last debate over how it’s not “Morning in America” anymore was a clear shot at Pence’s campaigning as if it’s still the Reagan era.

Shaquille Brewster

You’re already seeing a difference with Christie tonight. Advisers told me ahead of the debate that you can expect Christie to more consistently drill into Trump’s policy failures, conduct and refusal to debate. He did two of the three in his first answer — to a question that was unrelated to the former president.

At recent campaign events, Scott has consistently reminded voters of his support for Trump-era policies — namely his work as one of the co-authors of Trump’s 2017 tax cut. No surprise that he made sure to mention it tonight.

A notable shift in this debate: The candidates are the first ones to name-check Trump, potentially previewing how they’re more willing to draw a contrast with the front-runner. During the first debate, the first mention of Trump’s name came from the moderators.

Newsom on the real debate

California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is at the debate as a Biden surrogate, commented on the Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce dating rumors when asked by TMZ:

Reporter: Governor, Taylor Swift on dating Travis Kelce — what’s your take?

Newsom: Come on, man, I know it’s actually the only thing people are talking about. They ain’t going to be tuning [into] the debate, that’s the real debate. Is it real or is it not? I don’t know.

The context for the child care funding expiring this weekend that Scott was just asked about: It will be left up to individual states to handle, and child care centers are largely planning to increase tuition charges to cover the difference. When he says, “We should let the American people keep their money,” the solutions he just laid out wouldn’t necessarily reduce increasing costs around child care, even if they promote school choice for parents.

Scott is dodging on this question now, but there is a consistent push from Democrats in Congress for renewing things like the Child Tax Credit and discussion of whether, with child care bloc grants expiring, to continue those, as well. But it’s most likely not going anywhere, because Republicans in the House don’t back it and Senate Republicans don’t in large enough numbers.

Kristen Welker notes: In a sign he is shifting strategy and sharpening his tone, DeSantis says Trump is “missing in action” for missing the first two debates. It is notable that he is just speaking for the first time 16 minutes into the debate.

Ben Kamisar responds: Wonder if DeSantis was hoping he could deliver that line attacking Trump for not being on the debate stage before another candidate could get to it. As Kristen Welker smartly noted just a few minutes ago, Christie used his time to make the same point.

Allan Smith points out: DeSantis comes out firing in criticizing not only Biden, but Trump. Clearly, a part of his game plan was to drag Trump into this fight more than the former president was last month. And DeSantis is directly connecting Trump not being on stage with him not being a strong leader.

Alec Hernández observes: A striking moment to hear DeSantis name-check Donald Trump on the debate stage. He’s been ramping up his attacks on the former president in recent weeks, saying just yesterday about debating Trump that he “should step up to the plate and then we’ll do it. I mean, I think we can talk about a lot of the things. He’s running in 2024 on a lot of the same promises he ran on in 2016 and didn’t deliver on.”

DeSantis does it. He goes after Trump.

DeSantis has danced around his assaults on Trump. Tonight produced a direct hit. “You know who else is missing in action? Donald Trump. He should be on the stage tonight. He owes it to you to defend his record.”

It was a bold move by DeSantis, who went out of his way to bring up Trump.

Even allies have said DeSantis needs a big win tonight if he’s to keep his bid alive.

DeSantis goes after Washington, D.C.

Mark Murray

DeSantis not only railed at Trump for not being on the stage; he also attacked all of Washington for being to blame for the nation’s debt. One thing he did NOT mention: He was a member of Congress — in Washington — from 2013 to 2018.

Ben Kamisar

DeSantis’ first words at 9:16.

Ali Vitali

What’s striking about this conversation on the government shutdown: DeSantis — and Trump — have backed up hard-line conservatives who are consistent thorns in McCarthy’s side. Haley, by contrast, has spoken against the effectiveness of a shutdown as a tactic, putting her in opposition to one of her only congressional endorsers, Rep. Ralph Norman of South Carolina.

Christie takes the first big swipe at Trump for not being on the debate stage and instead hiding on the golf course. Christie’s goal is to keep the focus on Trump, but still, it’s an open question how effective he can be with this strategy.

Ben Kamisar

Burgum barely made it onto the debate stage tonight — he hit the polling threshold only last weekend. He needs to make a big splash tonight, one reason he cut off the moderator to push himself into this debate about the UAW. 

Haley’s answer about the UAW strike is notable — rather than talk about her record as South Carolina’s governor being a “union buster” who prefers to eliminate the “middlemen” of unions, she outlines the bullet points of her economic “Freedom Plan.”

A risk for DeSantis

Hallie Jackson

Some in DeSantis’s orbit continue to argue this race is a marathon, that “slow and steady” and staying on-message is the way to go — and his sitting back in the first couple of minutes feels part and parcel of that — but there’s an obvious risk to that strategy, too, considering how Trump’s stomping on the rest of the field.

DeSantis is notably not jumping into the conversation about the UAW strike, and he has avoided answering specifics on the campaign trail.

Asked about the strike at a PAC-sponsored event in Red Oak, Iowa, this month, he dodged the question: “So, I’m not well-read enough into the details to be able to comment on that specific, but I will say this: What Biden is doing with his push for electric vehicles is ultimately going to be destructive of the automobile industry as a whole.”

Not a great sign for DeSantis in a debate he desperately needs to not only do well in but win: You’ve got candidates polling well behind him getting their second answers in before he even gets in his first.

DeSilent?

Ben Kamisar notices: Interesting that we’re three questions in and the candidate at center stage, DeSantis, hasn’t gotten a question yet. He’s the polling leader (again: of those on the stage, as Trump is obviously polling far and away above the rest of the field), and that’s why he’s standing at the center.

Matt Dixon with Ben:  His wife is right on screen also in every shot of moderators.

Dasha Burns points out that it’s only getting worse: DeSantis will now be the last candidate to speak. He missed his moment to jump in on the economy, even though he just unveiled his energy policy.

Scott first to drop Biden’s name

Scott quickly pivoted off a question about his past remarks about striking autoworkers by pointing to Biden’s appearance on the picket line Tuesday.

“He should be on the southern border,” Scott said. He said the administration was a failure on immigration.

It was an early reference to the president in a contest in which the candidates increasingly need to appear as alternatives to Biden if they’re going to get past Trump.

Scott leans into his upbringing and how it proves the “American dream is alive and well” at nearly all of his campaign events and advertisements.

Ali Vitali

After the last debate, where the complaints were that it was chaotic with everyone talking over one another, it’s striking tonight that — albeit just a few minutes in — the tone and tenor here are tame and collegial. We’ll see how long that lasts …

Garrett Haake

Pence says we should repeal the Green New Deal. No such bill ever passed Congress. Maybe he means the bipartisan infrastructure bill?

Garrett Haake

#CampaignFashionReport — I see all the men have gone with red ties again. Scott has some stripes, and Christie has a pattern … but all red once again. Maybe it’s to capture the Chiefs/Kelce/Taylor Swift zeitgeist.

Scott pivots as Trump embraces autoworkers in Michigan

Compare Scott’s answer to that of Trump, who in Michigan just told striking autoworkers, “I support you and your goal of fair wages, greater stability, and I truly hope you get a fair deal for yourself.”

Notably the very first question goes to Sen. Scott about his comments that workers who strike should be fired — underscoring the scale of the UAW strike and the importance of union workers as a constituency.

Scott pivots to hitting Biden on the southern border and gets big applause.

Barbara Spencer, 83, of Spillville, Iowa, is a registered Democrat but voted for Trump in 2016.

In 2020, she voted for Biden, and for 2024 she’s still shopping for a candidate to support.

A retired English teacher, Spencer wants to hear from a candidate with a strong education policy tonight. “Teachers should be paid a good wage,” she said.

Gov. Gavin Newsom is in the spin room — surrounded by media

Dasha Burns

California Gov. Gavin Newsom found himself in a massive scrum in the spin room backstage.

The Democrat took questions for about half an hour before the debate.

NBC News is watching the debate at New England College with eight college students who vote in New Hampshire.

Of the eight college students watching the debate with NBC News in New Hampshire, three voted for Trump in 2020, two voted for Biden, and three were too young to vote.

In a hypothetical match-up between Biden and Trump, two of the eight students say they would vote for Trump, two would vote for Biden, and the four others would either leave the top of the ballot blank, vote for a third-party candidate or write someone in.

Three of the students are registered Republicans and five are registered as undeclared, which means they can choose which primary to vote in. Five of the students wish Trump were on the stage tonight.

Scott tries to walk back his ‘fired’ remark

As first reported by NBC News, Scott was asked about striking autoworkers at a campaign event this month, and he responded in part with: “You strike, you’re fired.” That response has haunted him since then, and he has spent the weeks afterward walking it back.

Ali Vitali

Scott seemingly sporting some new facial hair here!

Scott may try for some attacks tonight

The Tim Scott orbit is talking a lot about “contrast” heading into tonight — a word that’s kind of consultant-speak for “attack.” Scott has an opportunity to break out from the pack and may try to look for a moment on abortion or foreign policy.

Scott’s allies have said he’s willing to attack— but not just for the sake of it. It’s sounding like “No more Mr. Nice Guy” — maybe.

The 400-pound elephant in the room? The looming government shutdown

The politics of the pending government shutdown are complicated — and that could shade how Republicans on the debate stage talk about it.

There is little doubt that a government shutdown, at this point, would be the doing of Republicans, who have struggled in the House to pass anything to keep the government open beyond Saturday amid interparty fighting.

A shutdown, even a brief one, could risk causing problems for the economy and hurt people who depend on government aid.

The candidates onstage may be asked to decide: Do they follow Trump’s lead and embrace it, along with any potential political backlash? Or do they take it as an opportunity to oppose Trump and criticize Washington for being ineffective?

All eyes on Nikki Haley

NBC News is watching the debate at New England College with eight college students who vote in New Hampshire.

Jack Coleman, 20, is a Republican voter in New Hampshire and a student at Dartmouth College. This debate he is keeping his eyes on Nikki Haley.

“I think it’d be interesting to see how Nikki Haley can differentiate her record from Chris Christie, who’s gotten the ability to work with blue states and Democrats, and Ron DeSantis, who has the kind of record every Republican governor wishes he had,” he said.

Coleman is looking to see whether Haley can “pivot to more domestic issues.” He elaborated saying, “She has foreign policy experience, but I’m definitely watching for her here.”

He also hopes this debate focuses more on domestic issues. “I think the last debate was maybe a little too foreign-policy-focused, and I’d like to see us move back to domestic policy.” His top candidate right now is DeSantis, but he says, “That’s tentative, could change.”

Tonight I’ll be watching whether Ramaswamy seizes the spotlight as he did during the first debate or whether the other candidates keep the focus on the topics they want to address, including, for some, finding every chance to take aim at Trump.

A Ramaswamy source tells me he still sees his top challenge as introducing himself to the American public, with one-third of Americans saying they don’t know who he is. But this source cautions that he is a “fighter at heart” and wouldn’t be surprised “if things got a little sporty again.” 

A Christie campaign source says his goal will be to keep his sights trained on Trump. His strategy so far has helped him gain traction in New Hampshire, but it’s still not clear he has the momentum to be a real threat. 

Haley had a strong showing at the first debate — can she build on it? Our latest NBC news poll shows her with the largest lead over Biden (Steve Kornacki cautions that could be in part because she doesn’t have universal name recognition), but will she lean into the argument that she’s the strongest general election candidate? 

Pence has signaled he will make sharp contrasts with Trump over the economy and abortion. Pence has slammed Trump for refusing to commit to a national abortion ban in his interview with “Meet the Press.” 

I will be curious to see whether Scott walks back his comments on the UAW; he suggested union workers who strike should be “fired.” He was referring to comments made by President Ronald Reagan, but his remarks roiled the union, which is a key constituency, as evidenced by both Biden’s hitting the picket line and Trump’s speaking to autoworkers in Michigan tonight. 

For Burgum, tonight could be pivotal — he is barely registering in the polls and will need to have a strong showing to justify staying in the race. 

Finally — all eyes will also be on center stage and DeSantis, who has been dropping in the polls since the first debate. He has been sharpening his attacks against Trump in recent days — over the border, abortion and the economy. During the first debate, DeSantis allowed the other candidates to duke it out with one another; so far his campaign is signaling he may mix it up more tonight. Still, with Trump commanding a double-digit lead, it’s not clear even that would make a difference. 

Scott’s mom is in the audience

Scott’s mother, Frances Scott, is here in Simi Valley to watch her son on the debate stage, according to a video Scott posted on X. She attended the first debate in Milwaukee and was heavily featured at Scott’s campaign launch event in May, and she has appeared at a handful of campaign events with Scott since then, though the campaign doesn’t consider her a surrogate.

Frances Scott says in the video posted to X: “Tim, wishing you the best. Grandaddy would be very proud of you. Love you.”

Trump, off the debate stage, keeps mentioning wanting the UAW’s endorsement

Trump has referred to wanting the UAW endorsement three times now.

He just said, “Just get your union leaders to endorse me.”

UAW President Shawn Fein said he didn’t want to meet with Trump on his visit to Michigan today. “I find a pathetic irony that the former president is going to hold a rally for union members at a nonunion business,” he said yesterday in an interview on CNN.

Hallie Jackson

One person I’m watching tonight: the guy who made a splash at the first debate.

A source familiar with Ramaswamy debate prep suggests he’ll aim to be a bit more “moderate” in tone this time, more “unifying” — but don’t be surprised if things get spicy if he’s attacked.

NBC News is watching the debate at New England College with eight college students who vote in New Hampshire.

Brendan Bunnell, 22, is a student at the University of New Hampshire.

“I want to see a nice come-out performance by Vivek,” he said.

Bunnell, who is a Republican, has Ramaswamy at the top of his list.

He hopes to hear his top issues discussed onstage — they include Second Amendment rights and his opposition to gender-affirming care for minors.

NBC News is watching the debate at New England College with eight college students who vote in New Hampshire.

Adam Kulis, 21, and Zaccary Lacasse, 20, are students at New England College. Lacasse, a Republican, says he is excited to see how Christie does tonight.

“I just want to see how he handles Vivek. Last time they got into it a little bit, which was pretty entertaining, I thought,” he said.

The two candidates catching Lacasse’s attention are DeSantis and Ramaswamy. “I really want to see DeSantis and Vivek duke it out on the issues that they disagree on,” he said.

Kulis hopes to hear “conversation regarding technology and how it’s used, like TikTok and all of those social media apps.”

It’s the first time he is tuning in this election cycle, and he said he will be listening to this debate with an open mind.

NBC News is watching the debate at Aase Haugen, a Christian retirement community in Decorah, Iowa, with seven caucusgoers.

Edmond Mertzenich, 89, is an immigrant from Liege, Belgium, and a die-hard Trump supporter who’s excited to caucus for the former president in January. 

Mertzenich’s not fussed that Trump didn’t bother to show up for tonight’s debate.

“Why would he debate with losers?” he said. 

“They’re trainees when they get in the White House. They don’t know what they’re doing going to do,” he said of the other Republicans in the race.

NBC News is watching the debate at New England College with eight college students who vote in New Hampshire.

Ky Urban, 21, is a Republican voter who is a student at Southern New Hampshire University.

Urban hopes the candidates will address the “challenges that we are facing at the moment.” He says some of those challenges are “the Second Cold War” and what he describes as “the monopolies of the shipping and tech industries.”

Urban is leaning toward voting for DeSantis but is still looking at other options.

Michael Toronto, 19, a student at Plymouth State University, is an undeclared voter in New Hampshire. He says he is looking to “see all the candidates’ ideas for how to fix this country, and I want to hear them side by side.””

Toronto is leaning toward DeSantis and Pence but is still undecided.

NBC News is watching the debate at Aase Haugen, a Christian retirement community in Decorah, Iowa, with seven caucusgoers.

Kent Shuchmann, 77, of West Union, Iowa, caucused for Trump in 2016 and voted for him in 2020 but is warming to Haley for 2024. 

Kent, a retired chiropractor, recently had his right leg amputated after he was diagnosed with diabetes. 

Tonight, he wants to hear from candidates who want to separate government from health care. “The government shouldn’t run the health care system, and it does. The government knows nothing about that.”

At second Republican debate, all eyes are on insurgent Haley

Haley’s comet soars or crashes tonight.

All anti-Trump Republican eyes will be on the surging former ambassador to the United Nations when most of the 2024 GOP presidential candidates take the debate stage at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California.

Haley, who served six years as South Carolina’s governor, was the consensus winner of the first Republican debate in Milwaukee last month, and her performance fueled a rise in primary polls in her home state, in Iowa, in New Hampshire and at the national level.

More noteworthy for many Republicans: An NBC News poll released Sunday showed Haley with a five-point lead — 46% to 41% — over Biden in a hypothetical matchup. That puts her well ahead of Republican front-runner Trump, who is tied with Biden at 46% in a head-to-head matchup, and DeSantis, who trails Biden by one point.

Read the full story here.

NBC News is watching the debate at New England College with eight college students who vote in New Hampshire.

Hannah Peterson and Julia Matte, both 21, are independent New Hampshire voters who attend Saint Anselm College.

Peterson is looking to see whether the candidates can reach any common ground on the debate stage. She’s also interested in “how conservative versus how moderate candidates are.” She is interested in supporting a moderate Republican candidate in the primary and is “looking to see if anyone aligns with [her] values.”

Matte hopes candidates will be clearer about their platforms and what policies they want to enforce. She hopes to hear “less bickering” so “voters actually know who they are going to vote for.”

Both Peterson and Matte’s favorite candidate heading into tonight is Haley.

Trump takes the stage in Michigan — focused on Biden, not his Republican opponents

Trump is offering a bit of warm-up programming for the debate and has taken the stage in Michigan.

He kicked off his economic-focused speech by focusing on Biden.

“The workers of America are getting, to put it very nicely, are getting screwed,” Trump said.

He mentioned Biden’s visiting a picket line in Michigan yesterday, suggesting the president went there only because Trump had already announced an event there.

“It’s his policies that send Michigan workers to the unemployment line,” Trump said.

Sept. 28, 202301:36

What the candidates who missed the debate will be doing instead

Presidential candidates see themselves as stars. But sometimes, they have more in common with the kid stuck watching a game from the sidelines wishing to get substituted in.

“I wish I was there,” said Ryan Binkley, a long-shot presidential candidate with no political experience. Binkley said he’ll be watching the second GOP primary debate tonight at home with his wife in Dallas before he reviews the debate with his campaign team tomorrow morning.

“We’ll highlight some things that we think were pertinent and important and some things that we can learn from and apply to the messaging a little bit,” Binkley said, explaining what he’ll look to take away from the debate.

Read the full story here.

Few striking autoworkers are expected for Trump’s speech at a nonunion factory

A day after Biden made history by joining a picket line with striking United Auto Workers members, Trump is expected to address the labor dispute today from a nonunion auto parts factory.

A crowd of roughly 300 was on hand here for Trump’s remarks, scheduled for 8 p.m. ET, ahead of the second Republican primary debate, which Trump, the GOP front-runner, is skipping.

The audience is a mix of workers from the host company, Drake Enterprises, and UAW members, area politicians and Trump fans with no deeply vested interest in the strike. 

Hardly any striking workers are expected to be here.

Read the full story here.

‘Floundering’: DeSantis bundler calls debate ‘make or break’

A bundler for DeSantis cast tonight’s debate in dire terms.

Fellow donors, the bundler said, have all but lost faith in DeSantis and need to see a demonstrable improvement from him if they’re to hang on. 

“It’s make or break for the governor. He’s listing. He’s been floundering at best since the last debate,” the bundler said. “If he struggles, if he has another average or bad performance, I think the narrative becomes hard-wired that he’s dead and it’s irrecoverable.”

Donors have been watching closely as Haley is close to overtaking DeSantis in the polls and as DeSantis has failed to break through. 

“I’m not seeing anybody say, ‘We must have Ron DeSantis,’” the bundler said. “He hasn’t had a legitimate good month since November.”

Will Republicans tune in to find a Trump alternative?

We’ll see if tonight’s debate produces the kind of breakout moment that could vault one of the seven participants into contention. But the reality — reinforced by our new NBC poll and many others like it — is that it’s now well past Labor Day, there’s already been a nationally televised debate and it’s still not clear if there’s even an appetite among most Republican voters for a serious, contested battle for their party’s presidential nomination.

Our poll puts Donald Trump at 59% among GOP voters, a massive 43-point edge over his nearest foe, Ron DeSantis. At the start of the summer — before the first GOP debate — Trump’s advantage was 29 points. Earlier this year, it was just 15. For months now, the only GOP candidate who’s shown an ability to make measurable polling strides is Trump. What’s more, there are signs that Trump’s support hasn’t just broadened among Republicans — it’s also deepened.

So my question heading into this debate isn’t about any particular candidate; it’s a simpler one: Will we emerge with any new indication that Republicans are seriously weighing alternatives to the former president?

In this sense, the viewership numbers, which we won’t learn until Thursday afternoon, are a metric I’ll be interested in. The first debate, broadcast on Fox News last month, drew an estimated 12.8 million viewers — a decent number when compared to the last contested GOP nominating contest, back in 2015-16. There were a dozen debates back then (Trump participated in 11 of them) and three of them had smaller audiences than last month’s debate, and another three had only a few hundred thousand more viewers. So even without Trump on stage, there was — at least based on the ratings — a relatively high level of curiosity about the GOP field.

But Trump, once again, is skipping this debate. And since the last one, his lead has only grown, with no one else moving up significantly. Outside of DeSantis — whose support has been slashed in half over the course of this year — all of the other candidates remain in single digits in our newest poll. The majority of Republican voters seem to be sending a signal that they’re losing interest in the primary campaign and readying themselves for a general election with Trump as their standard-bearer.

This is why the viewership figure could be meaningful. Without Trump, and with this debate airing on Fox Business Network, a lower profile outlet, will there be a drop-off in viewership? If so, how much? Will it fall below all of the 2015-16 debates? Far below? If it does, it would only buttress what the polls are suggesting: that Republican voters are tuning out what once looked like a wide open, suspenseful nominating contest.   

Trump ally says debate participants are ‘competing for a Cabinet-level position’

With Trump skipping the date, some of his supporters see the rest of the field as competing for something other than the Republican nomination but instead a Cabinet post in the Trump administration. 

“While everyone at tonight’s debate is competing for a cabinet-level position in a room full of campaign staff and media,” said Kevin Cabrera, a Miami-Dade County Commissioner who served as the Florida director of Trump’s 2020 campaign.

He said Trump’s event in Michigan tonight with striking autoworkers in Michigan is a better use of time considering he has a massive lead.

“President Trump is in Michigan taking his message directly to the voters,” Cabrera added. “President Trump is the clear front runner, and he will be the Republican nominee that will make America Great Again and defeat Joe Biden next November.”

Former Rep. Will Hurd says campaign is at ‘inflection point’

Former Texas Rep. Will Hurd, a long shot Republican candidate, said in a news release that he will continue his campaign for the time being despite not making the second debate stage tonight. 

Notably, Hurd said his campaign is at an “inflection point” and that he’s “constantly evaluating whether we have the resources to chart a path to victory.” 

“I’m headed to New Hampshire to spread my message to the Granite State ahead of the First In the Nation primary,” he said. “Educating voters on how to solve these existential issues is important, and hopefully other candidates will follow my lead.”

This language indicates a less confident tone than two weeks ago, when Hurd indicated to FoxNews that wintertime is when he will decide whether or not to pull the plug on his campaign, regardless of debate qualification status.

Biden campaign highlights ‘MAGAnomics’ ahead of the second GOP debate

The Biden campaign is preparing to target Republican economic positions, views expected to play a large role tonight in the second Republican presidential debate.

President Biden has frequently touted “Bidenomics” — the term the administration embraced that encompasses his economic agenda — and more recently highlighted what he is calling “MAGAnomics,” using the term for the first time earlier this month, according to a senior White House official, to target Republican economic policies. The term is a play on “MAGA,” the abbreviation for Trump’s “Make American Great Again” slogan that has been embraced by his followers.

Read the full story here.

A South Carolina split? ‘She kills it tonight’ vs. ‘He should fire his team’

Nikki Haley’s first GOP debate performance got her lots of attention for all the right reasons, while fellow South Carolinian Tim Scott’s debate performance did not.

Some see tonight as a continuation of those trend lines.

“She kills it tonight,” said a former Donald Trump staffer not currently affiliated with any of the campaigns. “It becomes a two-person race. Money starts to consolidate, donor pressure on others to get out, media focus.”

“One could argue her last debate performance put her into second place in the early primary states,” the person added.

Meanwhile, Republicans do not see Scott turning around his fortunes tonight.

“How bad does Tim Scott do?” said one veteran Republican operative when asked what they will be watching for tonight. “Most senators thought he had the worst debate performance last time.”

“A couple senators think he should fire his team,” the person added.

Where to watch the debate?

The debate begins at 9 p.m. ET. The two-hour debate will air on Fox News Channel and Fox Business.

Ramaswamy campaign ‘wouldn’t be surprised if it got a little sporty again’

Ramaswamy’s campaign predicted that he might be caught in the debate crossfires again tonight, but that he is still focusing on growing name recognition.

“To be frank, I think we were a little surprised last time for how many of the candidates last time came gunning for Vivek,” said Tricia McLaughlin, senior adviser and communications director. “We thought his biggest vulnerability was being irrelevant on the debate stage and that certainly wasn’t the case — he was the focal point of much of the debate.”

“I think Vivek is a fighter at heart, so I wouldn’t be surprised if it got a little sporty again but our real goal is for him to introduce himself to the American people,” she said. “Still one-third of Americans don’t know who he is (much less how to pronounce his name). It’s Vivek’s job to share with the American people who he is, what he stands and his vision to revive our country.” 

Ramaswamy has been off the campaign trail since Friday, with the campaign indicating that he needed time off from events for debate preparation.

Haley ready for attacks as her momentum grows

Haley’s campaign says it expects she will have a target on her back tonight — highlighting what they see as her growing momentum and signaling that she’s expecting to be attacked.

The way the campaign sees it, Haley went toe-to-toe with China at the U.N. so she can more than handle the guys on the debate stage — and it welcomes the fact that she is now recognized as a threat.  

Significantly, the campaign still very much sees this debate as a good opportunity to introduce Haley to voters and increase her name recognition, encouraged by the bump in polling since the last debate.

Where is Trump today?

Trump has declined to attend the first two debates, citing a lack of need since he’s the clear front-runner in the polls. But what he’s doing instead has garnered a lot of attention.

The first Republican primary debate was held the same week Trump was expected to surrender to Fulton County, Georgia, officials after being charged with racketeering in relation to efforts to overturn the 2020 election.

This time, Trump doesn’t have to worry about fitting a fingerprinting into his schedule.

He’s headed to Michigan tonight to give a speech before autoworkers who are striking there.

Hutchinson goads Trump as both head to Michigan

DETROIT — Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson missed out on tonight‘s GOP debate, but he’s trying to goad Trump into an attention-grabbing conflict, hosting a news conference at an airport hotel this morning and calling on the former president to debate him.

Hutchinson said Trump is in Michigan to avoid the debate stage, as the former president prepares to deliver evening remarks to a crowd expected to include United Auto Workers members and nonunion workers at Drake Enterprises, a nonunionized auto parts plant.

“I’m here in Detroit because I want to debate. Donald Trump is here in Detroit tonight, because he wants to avoid a debate,” Hutchinson said. “And I would love to have the opportunity to debate Donald Trump on his policies, on his support of workers, and bringing back manufacturing in United States.”

Hutchinson claimed to be the most pro-union GOP candidate in the presidential race and said that Trump has misled autoworkers and bankers in New York, referencing a New York judge’s ruling yesterday that Trump committed fraud and lied about his net worth.

Scott disappeared at the last GOP debate. His nice-guy routine is up for another test.

Scott is beloved by congressional colleagues, complimented by voters who see him as “really nice,” and even praised by his rivals — including barb-trader-in-chief Donald Trump.

But being Mr. Nice Guy might be one reason why Scott struggled to break through at last month’s GOP presidential debate. And tonight’s second debate is going to be another test of Scott’s bet that the nice guy won’t finish last — a bet he’s answering for on the campaign trail, too.

At recent town halls across Iowa, one voter asked Scott, “What makes you think you’re not too nice to do the job that needs to be done?” Another questioned if Russian President Vladimir Putin “would be afraid of you? Because you seem like a really nice guy.”

Read the full story here.

What to watch for in the second Republican presidential debate

Seven Republican presidential candidates not named Donald Trump will gather this evening at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library and Museum in Simi Valley, California, for the second GOP presidential primary debate — a contest that, much like the first one last month, has the feel of a fight for second place.

Scheduled to participate are: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina.

Even without the presence of Trump, the far-and-away front-runner, the event holds significant stakes for each of the contenders onstage and has the potential to add new clarity about where the GOP is headed as the 2024 election nears.

Read the full story here.