Growing pessimism over 21 June reopening plan amid fears of surge in cases to rival January’s second wave

New modelling for the government’s Sage committee of experts has highlighted the risk of a “substantial third wave” of infections and hospitalisations, casting doubt on whether the next stage of Boris Johnson’s Covid roadmap can go ahead as planned on 21 June.

Government sources suggested the outlook was now more pessimistic but stressed that a decision would be taken after assessing a few more days’ worth of data on the effect that rising infections are having on hospitalisations.

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