Sergei Shoigu has yet to comment on weekend mutiny, during which Wagner leader accused him of causing deaths of tens of thousands of soldiers in Ukraine

The Kremlin “likely risks Prigozhin’s armed rebellion expanding the window of acceptable anti-Kremlin criticism,” the Institute for the Study of War has said in its latest analysis, particularly if the Kremlin does not retaliate further against the Wagner leader.

The US thinktank used the example of a pre-planned meeting by the ultranationalist Angry Patriots Club in Moscow on Sunday, at which former Russian officer Igor Girkin reiterated that Putin needs to legally transfer certain presidential authorities to other parties if he is unwilling to assume control over the war in Ukraine as the supreme commander-in-chief.

If the Kremlin intends to use Prigozhin’s rebellion as pretext to start immediately suppressing antagonistic ultranationalists, then this event would have likely been a prime candidate to start that effort …

The Kremlin’s continued careful response to the armed rebellion will likely prompt other Russian nationalists to test Russian official reactions to more explicitly critical rhetoric.

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