MILWAUKEE — The elephant won’t be in the room.
But former President Donald Trump will be top of mind as Republican hopefuls take the stage here Wednesday night for the first presidential primary debate of the 2024 election.
Trump, who is skipping the debate because he concluded there was more to lose than gain when he has a commanding lead over the field, is instead appearing in a recorded interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson scheduled to come out minutes before the debate.
The debate is a chance for the eight candidates in the hall to introduce themselves to a broader set of voters and donors — and to throw elbows in the battle for second place in pre-primary polling. For Trump, it is yet another self-made opportunity to upend the Republican Party and the political world, this time on the eve of his surrender to Georgia authorities.
“We always knew Trump would be the focus of this debate, whether he showed up or not,” said Elijah Haahr, a Republican former Missouri House speaker and the host of a Missouri radio program.
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The inescapable truth for the rest of the field is that Trump, a two-time defending winner of the GOP nomination, holds commanding leads in national surveys and polls of the early primary states. Some Republican officials and strategists believe that if one challenger can consolidate support from non-Trump voters, he can be vanquished.
But so far, second place hasn’t proved to be much of a blessing for the man who has occupied it since before he stepped into the ring: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. He has experienced a summer swoon, dropping closer to the rest of the pack instead of gaining ground on Trump. That makes it incumbent on him to give Republicans a clear idea of why they should vote for him.
“DeSantis needs to make sure to make the debate about policy and what he’s going to do for voters — and not let the debate be all about the one candidate who is not on the stage,” said Dan Eberhart, a DeSantis donor and surrogate.
Because of his stumbles, DeSantis has received a lot of counsel about what he must do in the debate, some of it in a very public memo from Never Back Down, the super PAC that supports him.
A longtime DeSantis bundler said that from his perspective, things could get dicey for DeSantis if his performance doesn’t move the needle, especially with the donor class.
“He has to stick to the landing,” the person said. “Without Trump on the stage, he has to show he is the guy. If not, the money will dry up.” And, the person added, a poor showing would create “total chaos” for DeSantis.
But that is exactly why some allies say a steady performance could help him stabilize his campaign and create a springboard for the coming months.
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One person who promises to make that harder is former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, the one candidate who has taken big swings at both Trump and DeSantis. That has helped Christie move up in polls in New Hampshire, but he isn’t competing at all in the first state on the calendar — Iowa — and he would have a steep hill to climb in turning his more moderate brand of GOP politics into a nomination win.
Similarly, former Vice President Mike Pence has struggled to gain traction. For him, the problem is the combination of voters he has alienated: Trump supporters who blame him for certifying their 2020 election loss and centrists who find his record and platform too conservative for their tastes.
Christie and Pence are among the candidates likely to take one side of a GOP split over the war in Ukraine. They have been among the loudest voices in the Republican Party favoring aid to Ukraine, while others — including DeSantis — have equivocated. Trump has said he would end the war in Ukraine on the first day of his presidency, a vow that critics say presages a Russia-friendly end to hostilities.
They have also criticized Trump over his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, as has former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who qualified for inclusion just days before the debate.
Vivek Ramaswamy, the 38-year-old businessman who has moved into third place in many national polls, has played down his preparation for the debate. He told NBC News two weeks ago that he doesn’t want to lose the edge of freshness by sounding over-rehearsed. That could go one of at least two ways: He could extend the appeal of his free-wheeling style, or he could look woefully unprepared for the most serious of job interviews.
Two of South Carolina’s most prominent politicians — former Gov. Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott — may find that there’s not enough room for both of them in the primary. One could effectively knock out the other with a spectacular showing — or knock themselves out by falling flat.
The candidate who bears the heaviest limp on his way to the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum. He tore his Achilles’ tendon playing basketball Tuesday, according to his campaign. He was expected to appear on crutches.
But whoever wins the debate — and whoever loses — will have to compete with Trump for attention. By the time he turns himself in to be booked in Georgia on Thursday night, the debate may be a distant memory for at least some share of the viewers. And for others, it will be the second-tier event they didn’t keep an eye on.
“Seventy-five percent of the engaged primary electorate will be watching the debate because they are in the shopping mode,” said Brad Todd, a GOP consultant. “Twenty-five percent will watch Trump’s interview with Tucker. Zero percent of Republican primary voters will watch anything about the Georgia case.”
Source: | This article originally belongs to Nbcnews.com
