More than a million satellites could soon be in low orbit over Earth as nations scramble to launch thousands of communications satellites, scientists have warned.
The figure would be more than 115 times the number in orbit today, according to researchers at the University of British Columbia.
The ‘traffic jam’ in low Earth orbit could lead to light pollution and even collisions between satellites, experts have warned.
The problem comes from so-called ‘mega-constellations’ of communications satellites (similar to Elon Musk’s Starlink, but far larger with up to 300,000 satellites) which provide internet services from space.
Scientists have already warned that Elon’s Starlink satellites could kill someone in the next decade.
Huge ‘mega constellations’ of satellites could soon be orbiting Earth
Could Elon Musk soon be in a ‘space race’ with Amazon’s Jeff Bezos?
Musks’s Starlink has launched 4,500 Starlink satellites in the past five years, and now accounts for more than 50 percent of all active satellites orbiting the Earth.
Jeff Bezos launched his first two ‘Project Kuiper’ satellites this year, sparking fears of a space race between the two billionaires.
The researchers write, ‘About 4500 Starlink and 630 OneWeb satellites are on orbit as of July 2023, but this is only the beginning.’
Nations have to file for radio spectrum with the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) before launching satellites – and recent filings suggest that more than a million satellites could soon launch across 300 ‘mega constellations.’
The researchers warn of a ‘dramatic increase’ in the number of satellites, which could even imperil scientific missions in space.
The researchers write, ‘Constellations much larger than SpaceX’s Starlink have been filed, including a 337,320-satellite constellation named Cinnamon-937 that was filed in September 2021.’
The Cinnamon-937 constellation, filed in Rwanda, is the single biggest that has been filed so far.
Andrew Falle, a researcher at the University of British Columbia’s Outer Space Institute and lead author of the new study, said in an interview with Space.com, “If even a portion of these million satellites are actually launched, national and international rules will be needed to address the associated sustainability challenges, like collision risks, light pollution, and reentry risks,.”
The researchers say that it appears that organisations are filing the same constellation through multiple nations – and say that some of the proposed satellites may never launch due to funding or technology issues.
The lack of clarity highlights the problem of regulation around the sector, the researchers say, and they hope that this year’s World Radiocommunication Conference in November in Dubai will see more regulation around the issue.
OneWeb already has hundreds of satellites in space
Amazon’s Project Kuiper prepares to launch into space (AFP)
The researchers write, ‘By treating orbital space as an unlimited resource, humanity is creating serious safety and long term sustainability challenges to the use of low Earth orbit (LEO), including science conducted from space and the ground. The ITU filings are the warning, and also part of the solution.’
In 2019, the ITU brought in new rules for satellite constellations meaning that countries have to launch 10% of a constellation within two years of the first satellite, and the full constellation within seven years.
Falle said, “This is a welcome development, but that first satellite can be launched up to 7 years from the initial filing — so it could be a decade before we know which constellations are realistic,”
Elon Musk’s thousands of Starlink satellites beam signals for high-speed internet service from space to paying customers around the globe.
Tech billionaire Musk said last year, “We think this is a key stepping stone on the way toward establishing a self-sustaining city on Mars and a base on the moon.”
